Halos Swing For The Fences In Fenway

Los Angeles enters today's slate in a smash spot as a true longshot to lead the slate in scoring (+2000), but can they actually get us to the window?

Miami got out to a great start for us last night, scoring three runs in the first until the tank ran completely out of gas as they finished at an absurd 3-16 with runners in scoring position. Oof. Well, we're back in the batter's box supporting the Angels — and looking for revenge on the book.

Brayan Bello, Boston's 26-year-old RHP takes the hill Tuesday night after Boston dropped the series opener at home. He's coming off back-to-back starts of surrendering two or fewer earned runs despite not finishing 5 IP in any of his last 3 GS. So why are we attacking a starter seemingly on the upswing? In short, I'm not buying what Bello's been selling — he's greatly outperformed the peripherals and the dam could break any minute.

A single snapshot of his underpinning metrics tells a much different tale than the year to date 3.86 ERA would suggest...

• 91 Stuff+
• 5.99 Expected ERA
• 1.64 WHIP
• 3.9% K-BB
• 8.0% Swinging Strike
• 22.9% CSW
• 56.7% First Strike
• 27.6% Chase
• 90.7% Zone-Contact
• 40.7% Hard Hit

Bello gets the Angels tonight, who despite striking out more than just about anyone in MLB have shown prodigious power at points. Over the last two weeks (485 PA), the Angels rank second or better in home runs (20), barrel rate (11.5%), and expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon, .419). 

All of this is a little easier to buy in on if you saw Mike Trout's ding dong last night — which NASA reports is set to land back on Earth later this week. Power's one element of the game that gets my attention in smaller samples, especially when coming from streaky hitters like Jo Adell that hit bombs in bunches.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Every day I project team totals using my custom MLB Moving Averages algorithm (image below). When the Angels popped up as the second highest scoring team at the sixteenth highest price, I couldn't help but jump on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS TO LEAD TUESDAY IS SCORING (+2000). Good luck!