History Suggests Slumping Yankees Will Win Division

It's almost time for the New York Yankees to hit the panic button. New York will take the field Wednesday in Toronto with its lead in the American League East down to just one game. The Yankees have lost two straight to the Blue Jays and are 3-5 in their last eight games overall.

Worry, not Yankees fans. MLB.com reports 65% of teams sitting in first place on July 1 (109 of 168 teams) since 1996 have gone on to win division titles.

But wait, there's more from MLB.com, which reports that "since 1996, 18 of the 28 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering July." That includes the Los Angeles Dodgers last year.

Of course, the numbers never lie. Unless they do. According to FanGraphs, the Yankees are projected to win 90 games this season and have a 59.2% chance of winning the division. New York has a 34.7% chance of qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card. Add those up, and that's a 93.9% chance the Yankees reach the postseason.

If you want to hit your favorite sportsbook after seeing those numbers, caveat emptor (let the buyer beware). FanGraphs gives the Yankees a 10.7% chance of winning the World Series. That's tied with the Detroit Tigers for the best odds among American League clubs. The Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series, with FanGraphs putting their chances at 23.9%.

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