How Big a Role Will Blake Walston Have on D-backs?

Why Walston may outperform the projection

The Diamondbacks don't have much in terms of depth for left-handed pitchers, whether starters or relievers. Beyond Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Mantiply, A.J. Puk, and Kyle Nelson, Walston is likely the next left-hander up to pitch behind, likely in relief despite starting much of his career.

Should one of the relievers especially suffer an injury, Walston is a strong contender to get recalled to work out of the bullpen. If there's any extended time there, Walston is likely to surpass the 0.1 aWAR and 19 innings he's projected for.

Last year, he averaged a strikeout per inning with 18 in 18.1 innings. His changeup and curveball improved from Triple-A to MLB, likely due to air changes, but it was a key factor to see.

Walston had just a 4.85 ERA in the offensively explosive PCL last year over 65 innings. That includes 35 walks and 68 strikeouts. While the walks were up, he's proven himself to be able to strike out plenty of batters.

Walston saw his struggles come after returning from an elbow injury in late September last year. That's when he gave up four homers in four games. Prior to that, he had a 2.84 ERA in 12.2 innings.

The nightmare game was against the Giants on September 24, when he gave up three homers in 2.1 innings, a situation that isn't likely to be replicated. Before that disaster outing, he had an ERA of 3.38 and a 4.29 FIP in 16 innings.

Despite it being a small sample, he proved he could find success in the majors. If he can avoid the home run ball and walks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him outperform his projections.

Why Walston might underperform the projection

Walston walks a lot of guys, and has shown to be home run prone, two facets that can lead to a high ERA, FIP, and limited MLB experience. Last year, Walston walked 10 batters in just 18.1 innings. That is untenable as it's a 4.9 BB/9.

In Reno, it was 4.3 per nine innings. That will create far too much traffic for Walston which will elevate his FIP and put him at risk of seeing his ERA rise with a few untimely hits. While he does miss some bats, he isn't nearly the strikeout artist that would allow him to get out of those situations.

Then, as referenced above, he gave up four homers in that short a span. That made for a 2.0 HR/9, which is far too high for a starting pitcher or reliever. Yes, three of them came in one appearance, but since he doesn't throw an overpowering fastball and the advanced stats said he should give up a .416 slugging rate, it does give some pause.

If he struggles with the long ball at all this season in limited action, that can throw all of his stats off and make it very hard for him to meet these projections.

Summary

Blake Walston has a future with the Arizona Diamondbacks, likely as a reliever. His left-handed arm provides valuable depth and gives him more opportunity to become a viable reliever against left-handed hitters or in a swingman role.

He has the ability to strike out a batter an inning while proving he can handle an extremely tough offensive environment in Reno. With MLB ballparks being bigger and not as offense-friendly, Walston could have a slightly easier time navigating his way around hitters as he did for all but one outing last year.

However, he has to improve his command of his pitches. He walked too many batters and gave up too many home runs. Should those issues persist, he could find himself being leapfrogged by the likes of Jake Rice and Kyle Backhus next year. It's up to Walston to continue performing in Triple-A and be ready to take full advantage of the opportunities he gets in MLB this upcoming season.

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