How Diamondbacks Could Extend their Best Starting Pitcher

Table Note: xERA is a measure from Statcast that estimates what the pitcher's ERA should have been based on quality of contact plus actual walks and strikeouts.

FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, and is an estimator based only on those things that a pitcher can most control, i.e. walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. It takes balls in play, and thus defense, out of the pitcher's evaluation.

It should be noted that Nelson, who had a terrific second half in 2024, was bumped from the rotation and into a long relief role after the signing of Corbin Burnes last offseason.

The team extended Brandon Pfaadt, and chose him to remain in the rotation over Nelson. Veterans Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez were all healthy, leaving no room in the rotation.

Nelson toiled out of the bullpen in a long relief role, making just a few spot starts, until Burnes went down June 1 with an elbow injury that would ultimately require Tommy John surgery. From that point forward, Nelson once again resumed his role as the team's most effective starter.

Related Content: Shocking Stat Proves Just How Good Ryne Nelson Was in 2025

Ryne Nelson is an Extension Candidate

Nelson, who will be 28 years old next year, is arbitration-eligible for the first time in his career. He is projected to get a raise from just over $800,000 to perhaps $3.3 million via the arbitration process.

There are still three full seasons of control before he reaches free agency in the 2029 season in his age-31 season.

Now that he has entered the arbitration years and his salary increases, Nelson, who is represented by the Wasserman agency, may prefer to just go through the next three seasons and reach free agency in 2029.

But if the Diamondbacks wish to extend him and try to gain an extra year or two of control, they can make an offer that would entice Nelson to make a deal. There happens to be a template they can refer to as a possible framework, and that is the extension given to Pfaadt on March 28, 2025.

According to Cot's Baseball contracts, this is the structure of Pfaadt's contract:

5 years/$45M (2026-30), plus 2031, 2032 options
$2M signing bonus
26: $3M, 27: $5M, 28: $8M, 29: $11M, 30: $15M, 31: $21M club option ($1M buyout), 32: $25M mutual option ($1M buyout)
Pfaadt may block trades to five clubs annually from 2030 to 2032

Pfaadt is only nine months younger than Nelson, and reached the majors a year later. Since Nelson has already reached arbitration, the deal could not look exactly like this.

Ryne Nelson Extension Proposal

The guarantee would be four years, $40 million, a club option for for a fifth year and a mutual option for a sixth. The maximum potential earnings would be $76 million over six years. See table below for salary escalation details.

Summary

Whether or not the Diamondbacks are willing to extend Nelson, or if Nelson's camp would be open to such a deal is unknown.

But considering the difficulty to acquire good starting pitching, the team should be putting forth at least this much effort to extend the best pitcher they've had over the last two years.

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