How do Padres plan to improve pitching rotation?

The Padres’ top priority in the offseason was plain for anyone to see. Even before the announcement that Yu Darvish would miss the 2026 season following UCL surgery, San Diego was already faced with the potential losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, has an opt-out opportunity next offseason. President of baseball operations removed any modicum of doubt about his to-do list at this week’s GM Meetings, telling Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that “especially with King and Cease in free agency and Darvish’s injury, [starting pitching] is probably our top need going into the offseason.”

More notably, Acee reports that San Diego seems unlikely to play at the top of the market in its quest for rotation help. The Padres have already been exploring the trade market for potential options, per the report. King and Cease both received qualifying offers and seem likely to reject in search of more lucrative multi-year deals. Acee suggests that the Padres will “almost certainly” be moving on from both pitchers. Assuming that’s the case, San Diego will get a pair of draft picks as compensation — though their status as a luxury tax payor means those picks will come after the fourth round rather than after the first round.

At present, the Padres’ rotation includes Pivetta, Joe Musgrove (returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery) and a slew of question marks. JP Sears struggled after coming over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Randy Vasquez posted a solid-looking 3.84 ERA but did so with one of MLB’s worst strikeout rates. Metrics like FIP (4.85) and SIERA (5.43) feel he’s due for major regression. Matt Waldron couldn’t replicate his 2024 form. The rest of the depth was thinned out when Preller traded Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Braden Nett and Henry Baez in deadline trades to acquire catcher Freddy Fermin (Bergert, Kolek) and the aforementioned Miller (Nett, Baez).

Preller acknowledged to both Acee and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the Padres could again consider moving a reliever to the rotation, as they’ve successfully done in the past with King, Kolek and Seth Lugo. It’s something the club will explore, but Preller noted that in past instances of the Padres making such a move, he only did so when the reliever in question was enthusiastic about the move. Acee notes that moving a reliever to the rotation seems unlikely at present. He lists Miller and Adrian Morejon as possible candidates, as does Lin, who adds righty David Morgan as a possibility for the switch. However, Preller cautioned against depleting the strength of his bullpen, which is already losing Robert Suarez, and noted that it’s important to make sure his club doesn’t end up with “two mediocre units” (referring to his rotation and bullpen).

Though the focus is on the rotation, it’s not the Padres’ only need. Preller tells Robert Murray of FanSided that his club has interest in retaining first baseman Luis Arraez, who’s a free agent for the first time this winter.

The 28-year-old Arraez (29 in April) spent most of the 2024 season and all of 2025 in San Diego after being traded over from Miami. This past season was arguably Arraez’s worst in seven major league seasons. He yet again posted a quality batting average, but not to his usual extent, and he did so with even lesser on-base and slugging marks than usual. Arraez’s .292/.327/.392 is well shy of the career .323/.372/.418 line he carried into the 2025 season.

Arraez feels more like a luxury than a need for the Padres, who could plug in Gavin Sheets at first base as an affordable option or utilize Jake Cronenworth at first and give Sheets more of a DH role. That’d allow the club to pursue middle infielders, with Xander Bogaerts capable of handling either shortstop (as he did in 2025) or second base (as he did in 2024). Arraez doesn’t seem likely to break the bank given the lack of punch and on-base heft behind his perennially strong batting average, but if the Padres plan to focus primarily on rotation help, even a relatively modest two- or three-year deal for Arraez might not be in the cards.

One other question facing San Diego this winter is the health of setup man Jason Adam. The right-hander suffered a season-ending tendon rupture in his quadriceps in early September but is on the road to recovery. Adam tells Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune that there’s a chance he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though he could be cutting it close. Adam says he expects to pitch at some point in spring training but may not be “right on time.” He and the team aren’t ruling out Opening Day, which is a clear goal, but he cautions that he “won’t be stupid about” his recovery and risk a setback.

The 34-year-old Adam has risen from relative obscurity to staking a legitimate claim as one of MLB’s top setup arms. Dating back to 2022, he’s pitched to a combined 2.07 ERA, including three seasons with a sub-2.00 mark (and a 2.98 ERA in his “down” year in 2023). Along the way, Adam has fanned 29.2% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. Since 2022, only three relievers — Tyler Rogers, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax — have more holds than Adam’s 92.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $6.8MM salary for Adam next season. That’s his final year of club control, so if he were expected to miss a notable portion of the season, Adam would’ve been a natural non-tender candidate, despite his excellence. The fact that he’s now citing Opening Day as a realistic target makes it far likelier that he’s back, though if the Padres are particularly crunched for payroll space — a 2026 budget remains unclear — then they could feasibly look to move Adam for a modest return and reallocate those dollars toward the rotation.

Even with Suarez opting out and Adam in limbo health-wise, the Padres still boast a deep late-inning group with Miller, Morejon (2.08 ERA), Morgan (2.66 ERA as a rookie) and Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA, 35.5 K%) all still in the fold. A healthy Adam would give San Diego one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.