How next few weeks could impact Blue Jays’ trade deadline plans

It’s nearly that time of year again.

As last weekend’s Rafael Devers-to-the-Giants blockbuster reminded us, the heart of trade season is almost upon us. We’re six weeks away from the July 31 trade deadline, and the Toronto Blue Jays – sitting six games above .500 following Tuesday’s 5-4 walk-off victory – are trending towards becoming buyers for the first time since 2023.

This team, of course, is much better positioned compared to where they sat a year ago. Through 72 games this season, they sit third in the AL East and trail the first-place New York Yankees by only three games. They’re the current holder of the second wild-card seed and are just a half-game back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the No. 1 spot.

At this point last season, the Blue Jays were two games below .500 across the 72-game mark and proceeded to lose six straight after that as the franchise’s grim playoff hopes faded even further. When the time came to choose a path, the front office opted for a soft retool leading up to the 2024 trade deadline, mostly selling off pending free agents for future assets.

This time around, they’re hoping to do the opposite.

Unless Toronto’s record suffers a significant decline over the next few weeks, the organization’s path to emerging as buyers will likely become clear ahead of next month’s deadline, especially with how favourable their remaining schedule breaks down prior to the All-Star break.

After these next two games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the schedule will begin to soften for the Blue Jays — at least theoretically — as they’ll welcome the basement-feeding Chicago White Sox to Rogers Centre before hitting the road to face a mediocre Cleveland Guardians squad and a Boston Red Sox club that, despite winning eight of their last 10, just traded away a generational hitter.

Granted, there’s a massive four-game series versus the Yankees at the end of the month that awaits the Blue Jays. After that, though, they’ll play the White Sox again as well as the Los Angeles Angels and Athletics — presenting three winnable series — to conclude the unofficial first half.

By then, they’ll likely know a lot more about where they stand as a team. But they should also have a better understanding of who this year’s sellers might be. As of now, you can probably count the number of clubs that are already in a position to sell on both hands — the White Sox, A’s, Orioles, Rockies, Pirates, Marlins and Nationals.

Outside of Baltimore, though, most of those franchises are unlikely to offer much in the way of acquirable impact talent.

These next six weeks are crucial for teams currently on the playoff bubble, both in the American and National Leagues. For many, this is the time to take a hard look in the mirror. The immense amount of parity that this season has brought will create an extremely profitable market for those with appealing items to sell. As such, that’ll likely motivate a few front offices to waive the white flag even if their team is within five games of a post-season spot.

For the Blue Jays, there’s the possibility their ideal trade partner hasn’t even emerged yet. Sure, they could benefit from striking a deal with the O’s for Ryan O’Hearn or Jesús Sánchez from the Marlins. But imagine the possibilities if, for example, the Rangers or D-backs — two clubs still competing for a wild-card spot — ultimately sell.

Acquiring an impact starting pitcher will surely be the top priority for Toronto’s front office. They’ll need to utilize the time between now and July 31 to evaluate two-fifths of their rotation, determining the long-term viability of veterans like Eric Lauer, Max Scherzer and Spencer Turnbull, where Bowden Francis fits, along with prospect Adam Macko inching closer to knocking on the door and Alek Manoah’s second-half return from Tommy John surgery.

Still, that doesn’t afford this team much margin for error if things don’t run according to plan. Thus, they’ll almost certainly canvass the starting pitching market ahead of this season’s trade deadline, and both the Rangers and D-backs could help considerably in that regard if they enter seller’s mode.

Starting with Texas, right-hander Tyler Mahle — in the final season of a two-year, $22-million contract — would be an intriguing middle-of-the-rotation option for Toronto’s staff. On the lower end of the spectrum, they could plug a hole at the back end with left-hander Patrick Corbin, who’s enjoyed a bounce-back performance thus far after struggling mightily for several years in Washington.

Arizona’s roster also features a pair of talented starters scheduled to hit free agency after this season: right-handers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. But the Blue Jays could attempt to address an offensive need here, as well, targeting someone like Eugenio Suárez — who’s also a pending free agent.

Looking beyond the rental market, the Milwaukee Brewers are another team that could jump into the seller’s conversation if they endure a rough stretch before the July 31 deadline. At that point, would they entertain the idea of trading Freddy Peralta more seriously?

It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Toronto’s brass were among those to ask that question. However, considering the Brewers are currently one game out of a playoff spot, there’s no immediate urgency to trade Peralta this summer, especially since his contract holds an $8 million club option for next season. They could easily hold onto him and revisit this conversation during the off-season when his market will likely include more suitors.

But with Peralta unlikely to remain in Milwaukee beyond 2026, perhaps his uncertain contractual future could alter this situation. Nearly three years ago, the franchise traded Josh Hader — who had another season of club control remaining at the time — to the San Diego Padres despite leading the NL Central. And they, of course, ended up missing the playoffs that season.

The number of teams that are one good week away from jumping into a playoff spot — or one bad week from dropping out of one — has severely complicated matters for contenders like Toronto that have started to separate from the pack. It’s why we’ll probably see most business conducted in the final days leading up to the trade deadline.

It’s also a trend we’ll likely see continue in future seasons as a result of the three-wild-card format in each league, allowing front offices to kick the can down the road on their playoff fate much later into the summer than under the previous postseason structure.