How Shohei Ohtani's elbow injury could affect his free agency

Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian announced Wednesday that two-way star Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for the rest of 2023 after he suffered a torn UCL in his throwing arm. 

Ohtani appeared to injure his elbow during the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Chicago White Sox, departing his start with what the Angels initially described as "arm fatigue." Despite the diagnosis, Ohtani returned for the second game as designated hitter, going 1-for-5 and scoring a run.

There has been no clarification as to whether Ohtani will need surgery to repair his elbow or if he will be able to pitch in 2024. Regardless of what happens, Ohtani's latest injury will have a significant impact on how teams view him heading into free agency this offseason. 

ESPN recently calculated that Ohtani's annual value is $76 million and projected that he could command a $624 million contract over 11 years. That projection was based on combining some of the highest contracts recently given to hitters and pitchers – in this case, Phillies shortstop Trea Turner's 11-year, $300 million deal and Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million deal. 

These projections are all working under the assumption that Ohtani would be a full-time, two-way player starting on the mound every five or six games and remaining an everyday DH. 

With Ohtani already having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2018, his latest diagnosis casts doubt on his ability to remain an elite two-way player. 

Going into free agency, teams may now consider Ohtani purely as a hitter. That's especially true if he has must undergo another Tommy John surgery. There is no guarantee he will be able to pitch at the same level as he has so far in his career (38-19, 3.01 ERA). 

If Ohtani isn't dominant pitching, his future team may have him focus on his hitting and a transition back to the outfield, where he played in Japan.

Despite this setback, Ohtani should still command the largest contract in baseball history. Ohtani's teammate, outfielder Mike Trout, holds that record with a 12-year, $426.5 million contract. Ohtani is performing like the best hitter in baseball this season. He leads the league in home runs (44), slugging (.664), OPS (1.069), total bases (310) and runs (97) while batting .304. 

Ohtani is also one of the more popular athletes in the world. In addition to the immediate boost in ticket revenue, TV deals and merchandise that the team that signs him would get domestically, his cult-hero status in Japan would instantly increase the presence of Ohtani's future team abroad. 

Teams should be willing to offer Ohtani at least a $500 million contract even if they are only considering him as a hitter. While it is disappointing to consider a future without Ohtani as a pitcher, he remains a generational talent as a hitter and will still be the most-sought free agent this offseason.