How Should the Cubs Stack Up Their Playoff Rotation?

With the regular season winding down, the Chicago Cubs are looking to secure the top National League Wild Card spot. They held that position for much of the second half, but now find themselves in a deadlock with the Phillies.

This means that within the next two weeks, they will have to come up with their postseason starters, a decision that is becoming more and more difficult by the day.

The club acquired Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline, two guys with strong track records and experience in the postseason. While Holmes has been great, Gausman has failed to separate himself, leaving the Cubs with an interesting dynamic.

To go with that, Matthew Boyd has been in a rough patch to start September while Shota Imanaga has looked like his all-star self as of late. Finally, David Peterson has pitched his way into the conversation. Even though he seems like a long shot to make a start, the results are impossible to ignore.

Clearly the Cubs don’t lack options for these games, but they do lack separation. The next few weeks will likely nudge the team one way or another, but we may have a good enough idea of what they should do now.

Overview of the Candidates

Perhaps the only pitcher who has seemingly solidified himself to start a playoff game for the Cubs is Clay Holmes. He has a 2.85 ERA on the season and 4.26 since joining Chicago. There has been a steady presence in his outings with the team.

Holmes’ ability to generate groundballs at a high rate in front of an elite infield defense has been key. With Dansby Swanson looking to return from his injury in the next couple of days, his case is about to get even stronger.

The other deadline addition, Kevin Gausman, has been a different story. He was added with the thought that his production was due to improve. With the Blue Jays this year, he had a 4.38 ERA, though underlying numbers and his FIP indicated he was pitching better than the numbers showed.

However, his luck has yet to turn. Over his first eight starts as a Cub, he has a 5.04 ERA. While his FIP and xERA are both considerably lower, the results still take priority. Still, he has plenty of playoff experience, and should his luck turn, could be a more than viable option to start.

Here’s where it starts to get tricky. The final three candidates would likely be Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and David Peterson. The latter two have pitched well lately, with Imanaga posting a 2.00 ERA and looking at his best over his last three starts and Peterson looking really good as a Cub, going at least five innings and allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 Cubs starts.

As for Boyd, he’s struggled down the stretch. He’s got a 5.66 ERA over his last six starts, while failing to strike out batters and limit damage. Boyd, however, has the postseason experience. He’s logged 21.1 innings in the playoffs over the last two years with a 1.69 ERA in those outings.

This has all combined to create an extremely tough outlook.

Playoff Rotation

Game One – Clay Holmes

The likely game one starter for the Cubs will be Clay Holmes. He’s easily had the best year of their current options, and has carried that success with him down the stretch.

While Holmes has appeared in 19 postseason games throughout his career, none of them have come as a starter. He made the transition last season but missed the playoffs with the Mets.

Still, he has proven that he can handle the moment. Across those 19 games, he has pitched to a 1.35 ERA and a 25.0% strikeout rate. It is not a given that this will translate into success in a starting role, but the regular season performance is there, and he looks the part of a game one starter.

As for the likely matchup against the Phillies, Holmes has yet to face them this season. However, Philadelphia has the eighth-highest groundball rate in baseball this season, while Holmes leads the league in that category. This would suggest that the ball will be on the ground a lot in this matchup, which could play directly into the Cubs’ strength defensively, especially with Swanson back alongside Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman.

Game Two – Kevin Gausman

While the numbers on Gausman are less than impressive this year, he could still be the guy in game two. He has struggled with the Cubs, though his underlying numbers suggest he has pitched better than his ERA indicates. Obviously, relying on this cannot be the only reason.

Throughout the year, he has continued to strike out batters at a high level. His whiff and strikeout rates both rank in the 65th percentile or higher, while his chase rate is in the 88th percentile. This is something that the Cubs rotation has generally lacked.

Along with that, he has been roughly league average in quality of contact. He has not been especially susceptible to barrels, and has a decent 41.1% groundball rate.

He has also been in big postseason games before, most recently starting in game six of the 2025 World Series. The production has been there, with a 2.93 ERA in last year’s playoffs.

There is enough evidence to trust him in this spot, and there’s a good chance that’s exactly what the Cubs will do.

Game Three – Shota Imanaga

It has been a season of highs and lows for Shota Imanaga. When he’s been good, it’s been elite production, and when he’s been bad, it seems he just can’t keep the ball in the yard.

As of late, he’s looked terrific, good enough that he could be the hot hand in a playoff series. His last three starts have been dominant, going six innings in each and allowing just four earned runs. The swing and miss has been there too, racking up 22, 12, and 20 whiffs in those games.

Throughout his career, that has been a huge sign that he’s “on.” Additionally, there has been just one home run allowed by him over that span, which is perhaps the largest green flag. Home runs can be killer in a postseason series, so if he can keep them at a minimum, that would be ideal.

Unlike Holmes and Gausman, Imanaga has faced the Phillies this year, and he’s dominated them. Over two starts, he’s gone 13 innings, allowing just two runs and striking out 12 hitters. They are slashing just .130/.167/.283 against him.

Playing both the hot hand and the matchup game seems like it could be lining up perfect for Imanaga and the Cubs.

Where Do the Others Come In?

Obviously, this leaves Boyd and Peterson out of the rotation. There is still a possibility for either of them to start in a deeper series, but for now both will likely see bulk innings out of the bullpen. This is a perfect scenario for Peterson, who has made nine relief outings to go along with 21 starts this year.

With some uncertainty remaining in the potential playoff group, having these two guys, along with Javier Assad and Colin Rea ready to cover multiple innings will be a huge factor.

The Cubs may not have the clear-cut postseason ace that some other contenders possess, but they have something else: options. Holmes appears to have separated himself, while Gausman and Imanaga offer two very different cases behind him. Boyd, Peterson and the rest of the staff give Counsell alternatives if something goes wrong.

The next week and a half could still change the order, but if the postseason started tomorrow, Holmes, Gausman and Imanaga have made the strongest cases to take the ball.