How The Arizona Diamondbacks Went From Dead In The Water To Wild Card Contenders

Carroll was another big piece of the puzzle. He was limited to just 13 games in June and slashed .221/.247/.442 with one homer, six RBI, three walks, 12 runs, and three steals in July. The former Rookie of the Year then caught fire in August. For the month, he slashed .292/.380/.611 with eight homers, 21 RBI, 16 walks, 23 runs, and eight steals. While Carroll has cooled off a little in September, he is still putting up solid numbers and has recorded the first 30-homer/30-steal season of his career.

What Changed For The Other Contenders

While the Diamondbacks were surging, the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds were sliding, and the New York Mets were in a major freefall. After the trade deadline, the Giants have gone 23-26, the Reds are 23-25, and the Mets have gone 15-26. It is easier to gain ground when the pack falls back to meet you.

San Francisco’s troubles have mostly come at the plate. While Rafael Devers is still hitting homers, his batting average and on-base percentage have plummeted 38 and 59 points, respectively, since he was acquired by the Giants. Willy Adames batted .190 in August and is hitting .208 in September. Heliot Ramos is hitting .202 in September. Matt Chapman hit .203 in August and is hitting .236 in September. It is hard to win games if you can’t hit the ball.

Cincinnati’s lineup is centered around star shortstop Elly De La Cruz, but he has struggled of late. After hitting 16 home runs in the first three months, the Reds’ star has only hit three since. His average has plummeted as well. His .285 start has tapered off to just .224 since the trade deadline. Without De La Cruz to power the offense, Cincinnati’s attack has been lacking.

The Mets had the best record in baseball to start the season, 45-24. Since then, only the Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, and Washington Nationals have a worse record. New York’s bullpen has been rocky. The back half of their lineup has been spotty. Ace Kodai Senga, who had a 2.00 ERA at the trade deadline, struggled so badly coming back from his June hamstring strain that he was sent down to the minors. The rest of the rotation has cooled off as well.

End Of My Arizona Diamondbacks Wild Card Rant

So what does it all mean? Arizona is inexplicably peaking at the right time, while the three other wild-card contenders are fading. On paper, the Diamondbacks, statistically, are a far worse team after trading away those four players, yet here we are. Like a PeeWee football player, Arizona’s competition seems to be going the wrong way, and Arizona is just watching them go.

After Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo, the Diamondbacks don’t have much offense. With Burnes and three of their top relievers injured, the pitching could be spotty going forward, too. That said, all of the games that Arizona has left are against teams that have clinched their playoff spots. Will the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres be resting their top stars before the playoffs? It is possible.

San Francisco has only three games left, but they are all at home against the hapless Rockies. The Reds have one more game at Pittsburgh, after losing their second straight to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, then they close out with three games in Milwaukee. The Mets lost to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday. They have one more in Chicago before finishing with three games in Miami. I am not saying that the Diamondbacks have a great chance to grab that last spot, but I certainly wouldn’t rule them out. Carroll, Marte, and Perdomo are all clutch hitters, and Zac Gallen and Rodriguez should each have one more start.

It would not surprise me a bit to see the Mets continue to collapse, allowing the Diamondbacks to sneak into the last playoff spot. I don’t see Arizona making it out of the first round, but they certainly have a chance to at least get there. The Giants are 2.5 games behind the D-backs, so their chances are slim, even if they sweep Colorado. The Reds losing twice in Pittsburgh certainly puts their chances for the postseason on life support. The Reds do hold the tie-breaker against the Mets and the Diamondbacks.

What it really comes down to is the Mets controlling their own destiny. A team with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso topping their lineup, and the richest owner in MLB writing the checks, should be able to pull it off, right? So why don’t I feel convinced that New York is going to do it? They have gone on long losing streaks, month after month, and choked away games that they should have won. That makes it hard not to think that a team like Arizona is going to pass them, just like so many others did during their freefall. At this point, I think my money is on the Diamondbacks to sneak in by default.