How the Reds Can Fill Hunter Greene’s Innings

The Cincinnati Reds’ run to the playoffs in 2025 was mostly attributed to a great rotation. Andrew Abbott continued his accension, Brady Singer was a stead force, and Nick Lodolo finally had a healthy enough season to blossom into the pitcher fans knew he could be.

But, most importantly, Hunter Greene look another step forward, cementing himself as one of the best arms in the National League.

The rotation was looking like a strength once again heading into Opening Day, but the Reds will now have to navigate the first few months without their ace. After elbow discomfort was announced a few days ago, it was reported on Tuesday that Greene will require surgery, putting him on the shelf until July.

It’s a total gut punch, and it’s the type of injury that seriously halts momentum that the Reds have been built — but it’s not an injury that is all too surprising. Greene has battled injuries throughout his career, pitching more than 150 innings in a season only once (2024).

It could always be worse. Some thought we would be looking at an entirely lost season, which is still a possibility if things do not track well during rehab. Regardless of how long he’s out, the Reds will still need to fill the innings he’s missing.

Who Steps Up?

Don’t get me wrong, losing your ace is not something most teams can simply patch over with a depth starter. However, the Reds’ internal options are better than years prior and arguably would be in a number of rotations if they were on different teams.

Greene’s injury will bump everyone up a spot in the rotation, making Andrew Abbott the No. 1 followed by Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, and Chase Burns. The exact order is to be determined, but fans can count on those four as the foundation of the rotation.

As for the fifth and final spot, it will come down to Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson.

Lowder, the seventh-overall selection in the 2023 draft, doesn’t have the 100-mph fastball that Greene is known for, but he does have the type of pitch mix and control that could make him a successful pitcher.

He features a four-seamer, sinker, slider, and changeup and has the confidence and ability to mix those pitches evenly with control, which should keep him out of trouble. In the minors, he flirted with a 2.00 BB/9 and a low 3.00s FIP. That success led him him climbing through the system.

Overall, the stuff is good enough to hold an average-to-above-average strikeout rate. His slider and changeup are especially good and give him a ceiling to dream on.

Perhaps my favorite aspect of Lowder is his elite ability to generate ground balls. His sinker and changeup have downward movement while his slider jumps away from righty batters, making solid contact difficult to come by. If hitters do make hard contact, it usually is onto the ground.

Pitching in a ballpark like Great American fits a pitcher like Lowder, in theory. He did struggle with home runs a little bit coming through the minors, but a high ground-ball rate and low walk rate will make those home runs solo shots and should limit damage.

No matter which interviews or stories you have read this spring, you always hear Terry Francona and the rest of the staff talking positively about Lowder and how good he looks this spring. You also hear a lot of praise for the next guy — Brandon Williamson.

Williamson joined the Reds ahead of the 2022 season and has seen his fair share of ups and downs. It started with control issues in 2022, a solid stint in Cincinnati in 2023, then 30 innings since due to Tommy John surgery.

In some ways, Williamson was a bit forgotten over the past two years, but the lefty is catching eyes in spring. His velocity is up to the mid-90s and he has been throwing strikes at a higher rate than years past.

He hasn’t had the stuff to generate a high number of whiffs, but a jump to 95 mph would help separate the velocity on his fastball and changeup — which I see as his best pitch — and could lead to more swings and misses.

I have always thought that his curveball had potential to help him rack up more strikeouts. It’s a big- bending, slow curve that keeps batters off balance but sometimes can catch too much of the plate and lead to trouble.

Too many balls in play has been a problem for Williamson in the past. Hard contact, often in the air, is not a combination many pitchers succeed with. While I think Lowder offers a higher floor than Williamson, we still have not seen Williamson at 100%.

A solid, back-of-the-rotation lefty with some intrigue is not too bad for your fifth or six starter. You’ll find people who are pretty high on Williamson, but I would prefer Lowder to crack the Opening Day roster. Either way, they will both be used this season.

Keep in mind, both of these pitchers have missed significant time with injury. Last season, Lowder threw a total of 9.1 innings while Williamson has thrown fewer than 35 innings in the past two seasons combined. Each will be working back from injuries of their own and could come with restrictions.

What to Expect When Greene Comes Back

Inserting Lowder or Williamson for Opening Day is the easiest part of this trickle-down effect. Both are healthy and ready to contribute, but that only covers the beginning of the season. What happens if a previous injury flares up? Or Lodolo, who is often injured himself, lands on the IL? The rotation depth could thin out pretty quickly.

Luckily, the Greene injury is not expected to last all season. In a perfect world, Greene’s replacement pitches until he is healthy, and someone else is sent down to help manage innings and workload. The problem is Greene is not guaranteed to come back to full health.

As a pitcher, coming off the IL takes time to find your footing. You essentially miss four months of competitive pitching only to be asked to come back, lead the staff, and pump 100 mph. If Greene is not 100%, has a set back, or struggles to find his groove, the Reds could be in trouble.

Last season, Greene missed about two months and came back to throw six innings of three-hit, no-walk, six-strikeout ball against the Phillies. He started eight regular season games post-injury, allowing more than three runs only once with half of his starts allowing one or no runs.

So, coming back to his old self is possible — it’s just not guaranteed. The amount of time he will miss in 2026 is at least double that of last season’s injury and he does not have the benefit of being worked up to full speed. I would imagine he needs to start over from square one and could take longer to ramp up to his best self.

Final Thoughts

Last season was truly a statement year from Greene. His fastball command was light years ahead from what he saw in his first couple of seasons, and he truly established himself as a high-end starter in this league.

He also proved that the injury bug is a part of his game. As much as I hate to say it, you cannot count of Greene making 25, yet alone 30 starts. Not to go full spin zone, but 20 to 25 starts of his high-level pitching is still well worth his bargain contact, but that’s a conversation for a different day.

In the end, the Reds losing one of their best players is going to significantly hurt this team. Sure, they have the depth to withstand it, but none of them are Hunter Greene. Few in baseball are.