Hunter Greene To Undergo Elbow Surgery

The Reds announced that right-hander Hunter Greene will undergo elbow surgery, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The extent of the procedure isn’t known just yet, but president of baseball ops Nick Krall tells the Reds beat that the surgery will pertain to Greene’s elbow ligament (via Pat Brennan of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Whether Greene requires a full reconstruction (Tommy John surgery) or an internal brace procedure won’t be clear until the surgeons begin the operation and get a first-hand view of the damage to Greene’s UCL.

Whether it’s a Tommy John surgery or an internal brace, Greene will be shelved for most of the 2027 season as well. An internal brace could see him return in around 12 months, if there are no setbacks and everything moves smoothly. Tommy John rehabs tend to take closer to 14 months in today’s game. This will be the second UCL surgery of Greene’s career; he had Tommy John surgery back in 2019, prior to making his MLB debut.

Greene is in the fourth season of a six-year, $53MM extension. His 2026 season will end with just 27  2/3 innings pitched and an unsightly 6.83 ERA. He only started five games, mixing in two clunkers with one dominant outing and two middle-of-the-road efforts.

When Greene has been healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick has generally been excellent. He posted mid-4.00 ERAs in 2022-23 despite huge strikeout rates because of a susceptibility to the long ball. The 6’5″ righty then broke out in 2024-25, logging a dominant 2.76 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 45 starts (258 innings). He missed time in both of those seasons, albeit primarily due to non-arm issues. A pair of groin strains sent Greene to the injured list in ’25. He had a brief elbow-related stint in ’24 and missed time in ’23 due to hip pain.

The Reds listened to offers on Greene heading into the deadline, but no deal came together. Whether that’s due to insufficient offers, concerns from interested parties about the state of his elbow, or some combination of the two isn’t clear but is a moot point now. He remained in Cincinnati, and next year’s $15MM salary will be a largely sunk cost for a perennially low-payroll Reds club. Speculatively speaking, they could try to offload some of the contract this winter, with the acquiring team knowing it’d have Greene at $16MM in 2028 with a club option for the 2029 season.

As for the Reds’ broader outlook, another significant Greene injury is a major setback. While this year didn’t go to plan, the Reds could look optimistically to 2027, knowing they had a foundation of Greene, recently extended ace Chase Burns, lefty Andrew Abbott, shortstop Elly De La Cruz and Rookie of the Year candidate Sal Stewart. Losing Greene substantially weakens the rotation forecast. Such an injury happening right as his salary jumps from $8MM to $15MM is about the worst timing possible for a team that hasn’t topped a $126MM Opening Day payroll before.

There was already an argument for the Reds seeking a veteran arm in free agency or on the offseason trade market. Burns, Greene and Abbott are followed on the depth chart by oft-injured Nick Lodolo and former No. 7 overall pick Rhett Lowder, who has yet to establish himself as a credible big league starter. Depth arms like Chase Petty, Jose Franco, Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson have all struggled with injury or poor performance at the big league level. With Greene largely out of the equation, adding a starter in the winter now seems like a must for the Cincinnati front office.