Inside Cal Raleigh’s Early Struggles at the Plate

Following a historic 2025 season, how the Seattle Mariners’ All-Star, Platinum Glove catcher Cal Raleigh, would follow up his record-breaking campaign was one of the key talking points heading into 2026. While supporters may have expected some level of regression, expectations were still high, and no one anticipated Raleigh emerging as one of the least productive hitters in baseball.

With the Mariners also starting slowly, the focus now turns to identifying what has gone wrong and how quickly he can adjust. Cal Raleigh’s early struggles are not the product of poor luck or a changing approach; they are rooted in a clear and measurable breakdown against fastballs.

Breaking Down Cal Raleigh’s Struggles to Start 2026

Catching Up to the Fastball

The underlying data shows a hitter who is not expanding the zone, but one who is consistently getting beaten on pitches he would typically handle. Raleigh’s in-zone contact rate has collapsed from 78% to 38.5% so far in 2026, while his swinging strike rate has nearly tripled from 11% to 30%, showing that opposing pitchers are consistently beating him with pitches he would typically handle. Breaking balls out of the zone are not beating him; instead, pitchers are beating him with pitches in the middle of the zone that he would normally handle. He is particularly vulnerable up in the zone, which is a clear indicator of late timing and an inability to get the barrel there in time. This has also led to a deterioration in his approach, as he appears to be pressing and chasing more.

At the same time, Raleigh’s pull rate has spiked significantly, while both his hard-hit rate and overall contact quality have dropped off sharply. That combination suggests he is cheating to try to catch up to velocity, starting earlier to get on time, but still arriving late and failing to square the ball. The result is a mix of swing-and-miss and weak contact, even when he does put the ball in play.

Pitch Tracking Problems and ABS

Raleigh’s early struggles may also point to inconsistency in pitch tracking and zone recognition, and this is showing up on both sides of the ball. In spring training last year, when ABS was first introduced, Raleigh established himself as an elite decision-maker behind the plate. After posting an 82% success rate, his early-season mark has dropped to 50%, with his net value from challenges falling from +0.9 runs to near neutral.

Importantly, his challenge rate has remained largely consistent, suggesting this is not a change in approach but a decline in decision quality. When paired with his struggles at the plate, particularly missing fastballs in the middle of the strike zone, this points toward a broader issue with pitch tracking rather than a purely mechanical problem. This is a player out of form, struggling to pick up and track the ball consistently. These issues are also showing up behind the plate, reflecting reduced confidence in his timing and decision-making.

Turning a Corner?

However, there are signs that Raleigh could be about to turn a corner. After falling victim to Jo Adell’s heroic performance in right field, which robbed what would have been his first home run of the season, he still managed to drive a ball 370 feet with an exit velocity of 104.7 mph. Despite the result, it was the first instance of true hard contact we have seen from him this season.