Insider: Size, age should scare teams from signing Aaron Judge to long-term deal

The Athletic's Keith Law has given two reasons why teams should think twice before locking New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge down via a long-term deal. 

"Judge is going to be 31 in the first year of his contract, and the history of position players 6-foot-7 or taller as they age into their 30s is not promising," Law noted about the 30-year-old listed at 6-foot-7 and 282 pounds. "Only three players that height have even had 100 AB in a season at 31 or older – Frank Howard, Richie Sexson, and Tony Clark – and the three accounted for just six seasons worth 1 WAR or more, four from Howard and one each from the other two. 

"All were effectively done by age 35, with Sexson done after age 31. Judge is a better athlete than any of those guys, and still plays in the middle of the field, while none of those three did, so he might have a different future." 

Much was made about Judge's previous injury history even before he rejected a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension offer from the Yankees ahead of the 2022 season. However, it's worth mentioning that the presumed American League Most Valuable Player appeared in a total of 305 regular-season contests across the past two campaigns – good for an average of 152.5 games per year. 

"But a big part of the problem for position players that tall is that they seem to get hurt more often, and that has been part of Judge’s history," Law continued. Law added he'd offer the four-time All-Star selection "$35-40 million a year but would be wary of anything past four years guaranteed." 

It's been suggested a team willing to offer Judge a blank check to convince him to leave the Bronx could pay up to $500 million over 10 years for his services. That's probably pushing it, but The Athletic's Chris Kirschner and others recently said that Judge may have "made around an extra $100 million in free agency by taking that bet on himself" this past spring. 

In other words, it seems unlikely Judge would put pen to paper on anything shorter than a seven-year contract unless it included payouts of around $50 million per season guaranteed.