Philadelphia Phillies News

Home

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Is Dave Dombrowski Backpedaling On Bryce Harper’s Elite Bar

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kristie Ackert | Last updated Oct 23, 2025 3:17 PM ET

Highlights:

Dave Dombrowski’s “not an elite season” remark about Bryce Harper lit a fuse—but he doubled back to say the Phillies love him and aren’t trading him
Harper’s 2025: .261/.357/.487, 27 HR, 75 RBI, .844 OPS, 131 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR—very good, not vintage MVP
Under the hood: 91.3 mph avg EV, 47.5% hard-hit, .379 xwOBA—skills intact, not screaming age cliff

The Philadelphia Phillies' season ended in disaster. Not only did they get embarrassed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but then President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski dropped a match in the gasoline.

Dombrowski, asked to grade Bryce Harper’s season, said the quiet part plainly: “He didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past… I guess we only find out if he becomes elite [again] or he continues to be good."

A week of headline chumming later, he clarified on Foul Territory: there was no hidden meaning.

“He’s a great player… a future Hall of Famer… this thing’s got a life of its own… we love him.”

The Year In Numbers

Harper at 32 posted a .261/.357/.487 line with 27 homers and 75 RBI in 132 games. That came with a 12.1% walk rate, 20.9% K rate, 131 wRC+, and 3.5 fWAR—firmly “very good.” He also missed time with right-wrist inflammation in June and posted just .200/.333/.267 in the NLDS. If you were squinting only at AVG/HR in October’s afterglow, you’d nod along with Dombrowski.

Is This Age Or A One-Off?

The Statcast stuff says do not panic.

Harper’s average exit velocity (91.3) and hard-hit rate (47.5%) sat right on his established norms. His expected wOBA (.379) outpaced his actual wOBA (.361), a hint that the contact quality still plays, and some sequencing/variance worked against him. Sprint speed has understandably ticked down as he has just turned 33 this month, but there’s nothing in the batted-ball profile that screams sudden decline.

Harper’s plate discipline is still above-average, with manageable whiff and impact when he connects. FanGraphs’ value line (131 wRC+, 3.5 WAR) grades him as a top-30-ish bat in 2025—again, very good, not a trophy shelf year.

Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper hits a single against the Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park.Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

The Controversy, De-Bunked

Strip away the noise, and really, Dombrowski’s take is boring, and it is also correct.

Harper has multiple seasons that qualify as elite (MVP-level, top-10 overall). 2025 wasn’t one of them. It was a strong year dinged by a midseason wrist issue and a short, quiet October. That’s not some aging cliff; it’s life in baseball.

What It Means For 2026

For 2026, the bet is still on the bat.

Harper’s contact quality and on-base shape remain playoff-grade, so the ceiling hasn’t moved; what changes the outcome is health and a clean winter without wrist drama. Give him a normal ramp and you should see the rate stats lift back toward his MVP neighborhood, with a “very good” floor and stretches that feel elite.

The Phillies’ adjustment is more about distribution than reinvention—keep another right-handed thumper near him, avoid forcing the running game into his plate appearances, and don’t let a one-series slump turn into a referendum on a 13-year deal that still makes sense.

The Last Word

Dombrowski’s phrasing was blunt, but not wrong. “Elite” for Bryce Harper means MVP-caliber. 2025 was not that. It was still the kind of season 28 teams would pay retail for. The eyes and the data agree: bet on the bat.

The past week had had a lot of noise. Harper's agent, Scott Boras, had to chime in. But, now Dombrowski has to deal with the real issues he has this winter.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: