Is Jacob deGrom a Baseball Hall of Famer?

Would you rather have Jacob deGrom or Frank Viola?

If only things were that simple. Nothing against Viola, but no one is ever going to compare the two pitchers. This is despite the fact that each have, to this point, an identical WAR of 47. There is a lot more to electing a player to the Hall of Fame than just reviewing their WAR, but it also can’t be ignored.

There is precedent here as Sandy Koufax was elected without any doubt to the Hall of Fame despite a WAR of 48.9. Health issues ultimately derailed Koufax’s career, but when he was on the mound, all the left-hander did was dominate. Koufax retired with a 165-87 record while recording a 2.76 ERA. He also had a track record of success in the postseason and his dominance was unquestioned.

When deGrom, now with the Texas Rangers, first reached the big leagues, it soon appeared that his career was on the fast track to Cooperstown. Of course, we know what happens to things that are seemingly certain. From deGrom, there were ultimately two things that derailed him. You can make the argument that both were out of his control. At the very least, his luck has been terrible.

Once deGrom found his groove in the major leagues, there were few pitchers who were more dominate on the mound. He had a fantastic three-year stretch, from 2017-19, in which the right-hander pitched between 201.1 and 217 innings per season. During that time, deGrom’s success was overwhelming with a high point of his 1.70 ERA in 2018. However, it’s what happened during this stretch that is a major piece of what could prove to be the case against deGrom’s candidacy.

For all of the success he had all of the innings logged, deGrom picked up just 36 wins in that stretch. To say that the New York Mets failed to provide run support for the right-hander would be an understatement. We do know that wins can no longer be viewed as they once were, but it’s still the ultimate objective of a pitcher whenever they take the mound. And in that aspect, deGrom was lacking in that department despite his success.

We have to file the shortened 2020 season away, but heading into 2021, deGrom’s career was still heading towards a permanent home in Cooperstown. And this is where things truly got sidetracked. For as much as we want to believe in deGrom, he only managed to throw 197.1 innings in the four years between 2021-24. Not only does that greatly suppress his counting stats, but it also reduces his span of success.

If we were to be conservative, give deGrom 50 victories in that stretch. Combining that with his current 89 wins, and suddenly we’re feeling a lot better about his potential for Cooperstown.

When he’s been on the mound, how can you argue with a 2.51 ERA and 0.994 WHIP. But are 230 starts enough to really pass judgement on deGrom’s fate? His dominance of opposing hitters has been consistently on display with 1,732 strikeouts in 1,436.1 innings.

At 37, how many more starts, and victories, does deGrom have left? Is there a path for him to get to more than 130 wins in his career? That still provides a sizable difference to Koufax.

It’s likely deGrom’s WAR makes its way over 50, but Ron Guidry at 47.8 is likely the best comparison. Unfortunately for deGrom, they’ll likely share the same fate; outside looking in. But that doesn’t mean we should forget how good deGrom was, and is.