Is Jacob deGrom a Hall of Famer?

On Tuesday, the Texas Rangers announced that right-hander Jacob deGrom would undergo Tommy John surgery to repair a tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament.

DeGrom, 34, signed a five-year, $185 million deal with Texas in free agency and may not return to the majors until 2025. He made just six starts this season, displaying his usual high level of performance, posting a 2.67 ERA across 30.1 innings while striking out 45 batters. 

It's a brutal blow for the American League West-leading Rangers but even more detrimental to the two-time Cy Young Award winner and four-time All-Star's already-complex Hall of Fame candidacy. While deGrom stood as arguably the most dominant pitcher in MLB history at his apex, does his short-lived success justify his inclusion in Cooperstown? 

To fully assess his case, it's necessary to examine what deGrom has going for him in his Hall of Fame campaign. Throughout his career, deGrom has never been a bad pitcher, as his highest single-season ERA is the 3.53 he recorded in 2017 when he finished eighth in Cy Young voting.

But let's rewind for a moment. In 2014, deGrom made his major league debut and won the National League Rookie of the Year Award thanks to a 2.69 ERA in 140.1 IP. The following season, he made his first All-Star Game, and his ERA dropped to 2.54, which played a significant role in helping the Mets reach the World Series.

The following two years would be considered productive seasons for most players, but something clicked for deGrom in 2018, leading to his emergence as the best pitcher in baseball. An uptick in velocity enabled him to win back-to-back National League Cy Young awards in 2018 and 2019 with a 1.70 and 2.43 ERA.

Yet somehow, his dominance increased over time, but at the expense of his health. 

Putting aside the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, deGrom was on track for one of the greatest seasons ever by a pitcher in 2021 before being shut down with forearm tightness. In 15 starts, he posted a 1.08 ERA, striking out 146 batters over 92 innings.

During spring training in 2022, deGrom suffered a stress reaction in his right scapula, which caused him to miss the majority of the season. He made 11 starts, finishing with a 3.08 ERA and chose to opt out of his contract with the Mets after the season, and subsequently signed with Texas. 

DeGrom holds the fifth-highest career ERA+ (155), which is adjusted to compare all pitchers regardless of the era they played in. He trails Mariano Rivera, Bill Foster, Bullet Rogan and Clayton Kershaw in that category. Additionally, deGrom holds the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of all time (5.38).

Despite his remarkable stats, deGrom's lack of longevity will likely affect his Hall of Fame aspirations. Since 2021, he's thrown just 186.2 innings and, of course, will now miss a much more extended period of time.

Furthermore, deGrom has 84 career wins, far less than Candy Cummings, who has the fewest wins by a Hall of Fame starting pitcher with 145. Although his win total might not deter his candidacy, considering that in his Cy Young-winning seasons, deGrom posted a 10-9 and 11-8 record, respectively. 

However, voters will hold his 1,356.1 career IP against him since only seven Hall of Fame pitchers threw fewer innings. 

Although deGrom will be remembered as one of, if not the most, talented pitchers of his generation, it's difficult to see how he'll be inducted into Cooperstown at this point. Perhaps he'll find a second wind following his surgery and string enough accomplishments together to warrant a selection, regardless of whether he's a first-ballot inductee.

Justin Verlander underwent the same procedure when he was 37 and later won the American League Cy Young Award at age 39. Who's to say deGrom can't experience similar success? 

Nevertheless, for now, deGrom's career and Hall of Fame candidacy are in limbo, with no clear path forward.