Is Nationals Starting Pitcher More Effective Than His Numbers Suggest?

This past offseason, the Washington Nationals knew they had several holes on their roster that needed to be addressed.

First base and third base were the most pressing in the lineup. Some depth, preferably experienced arms, for the starting rotation were needed and the bullpen had several spots available.

With ownership and the front office seeing the writing on the wall that the team wasn’t quite ready to contend, they made short-term commitments instead of major splashes in free agency.

One of the additions they made was veteran pitcher Michael Soroka.

After spending a majority of the 2024 season as a reliever with the Chicago White Sox, the Nationals were making him a starting pitcher again.

Soroka looked good during the offseason and into spring training, creating excitement about what could be on the horizon.

Has Michael Soroka Been Better Than Numbers Would Suggest?

Unfortunately, just as the case has been throughout his career, all the positive momentum was stalled by an injury.

Soroka was hurt in his regular season debut on March 31 against the Toronto Blue Jays in the sixth inning. Bicep cramps is what was revealed as the reason he clinched his hand after a pitch, but he ended up on the injured list for several weeks.

He wouldn’t return to the Major League mound until May 7, and in his three starts, the results have been incredibly mixed.

His strikeout numbers have been encouraging, racking up 20 in 14.2 innings of work. But he has surrendered nine earned runs over that span and three home runs.

On the season, Soroka has a 5.95 ERA, but there are reasons to believe that a turnaround could be on the horizon.

His FIP is a much better 4.15, and as shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), his Stuff+ of 100 and Location+ of 108 are much better than his ERA would suggest.

Soroka doesn’t possess the most overpowering arsenal of pitches, but the potential for him to be at the very least league-average is there.

“His overall expected swinging-strike rate given his stuff is just over 11 percent, though, which would put him in the back end of the top third of the league: serviceable…There’s no standout pitch here. Just a decent slurve and some OK fastballs. The ceiling is probably just an inch north of a league-average starting pitcher,” Sarris wrote.

With MacKenzie Gore emerging as an ace and the best strikeout pitcher in baseball, Jake Irvin performing at a high level and Mitchell Parker running into some bad luck of his own but flashing top-end stuff, all Washington needs from Soroka is average to slightly above average production as the No. 4 or 5 starter.

If his regular ERA begins to closely mirror his FIP an other underlying statistics, he will help the Nationals win games and could become a popular trade target ahead of the deadline.