Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty for the Diamondbacks?

The 162-game Major League Baseball season is one that is full of twists and turns, and can often feel like a rollercoaster. For the Arizona Diamondbacks and their fans that can feel especially true, as every game matters for a team whose best chance to play in the Postseason resides in the ultra competitive National League Wild Card race.

The D-backs started their season off by going 12-7, navigating a somewhat softer schedule through the first three weeks. Since then they are just 5-8 however, bringing their record to 17-15.

The current space they occupy in the standings is one full game out of the Wild Card behind the Philadelphia Phillies, who they are playing this weekend. Arizona also trails the Cincinnati Reds by half a game. As for the NL West, they sit in fourth place, 5.0 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers, with the Padres and Giants both ahead of them as well.

Arizona has dealt with a number of issues with both health and underperformance in key areas. They've also seen improvement in other important aspects, and have gotten back a couple of injured players. What follows is the Glass Half Full and Half Empty perspective for each of primary areas for the team. It's up to the reader to decide which way they lean when evaluating the team's prospects going forward.

Starting Pitching

Glass Half Full

Following a difficult first turn through the rotation, the starting pitching has mostly settled in and is getting stronger as the season progresses. Since that first turn through (4.68 ERA in 5 starts) the starting pitchers have combined to go 11-8 with a 4.20 ERA, which ranks 16th in MLB. That ERA is accompanied by a 4.05 FIP and 3.79 xFIP, peripheral metrics that indicate the starters have pitched a little better than their ERA indicates.

Glass Half Empty

Merrill Kelly had to be removed from his start after just five innings on Friday due to a recurrence of the cramping issues that have plagued him. It's the second time this year that has happened, the first being two starts ago on April 20. Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen have yet to show consistent ace-like form. For a team that was expected to have a top 10 rotation, it's extremely concerning to see the top three starters in the rotation struggling to find consistency.

Bullpen

Glass Half Full

Shelby Miller was signed to a minor league contract, and made the team out of Spring Training. He has yet to allow an earned run in 13.2 innings. Jalen Beeks was picked up off waivers at the end of spring and has been a workhorse, throwing 17.2 innings with a 2.04 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Fireballing Juan Morillo has yet to allow a run in five outings since he was called up from Triple-A Reno.

These performances have helped the D-backs weather an injury storm, and now they've gotten Kevin Ginkel back, with Kendall Graveman not far behind. There should be enough depth to get the team through until their injured pitchers all return.

The Diamondbacks also have major league-ready, minor league depth that they can use as trade capital to add relief help by midseason once the trade deadline approaches. Taking a long-term view, once A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez return from injury, and the team makes additional moves, they should be fine for the stretch run.

Glass Half Empty

There is no way to overstate the devastating impact losing both A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez to the injured list has on the bullpen. Through April 17 the D-backs had a 3.48 reliever ERA to go with a league-best 2.58 FIP. Puk and Martinez had combined to go 6-for-6 in save opportunities while recording seven holds between them. Any kind of lead was safe with them.

Puk went on the injured list April 19 with elbow inflammation, and is now on the 60-day IL, ineligible to return before June 18. Martinez suffered from shoulder fatigue and severe velocity loss before being placed on the IL May 1 with shoulder inflammation. The team now holds its breath waiting for MRI results.

In the meantime, since April 18, the bullpen ERA is the fourth-worst in baseball at 5.96, and their 5.88 FIP ranks dead last.

Offense

Glass Half Full

The Diamondbacks rank seventh in MLB in runs scored, and their .764 OPS is the fifth-best in the league. They've achieved those ranks despite their best hitter, Ketel Marte, having missed all but nine games due to a hamstring injury. Marte returned from the injured list Friday night in Philadelphia, and lengthens the lineup, allowing Geraldo Perdomo to slide back into his familiar table-setter role from the ninth spot in the order.

Despite a recent slowdown, Corbin Carroll has been a dynamic top of the order run producer, scoring 25 runs and driving in 23 while putting up a .945 OPS. Perdomo is batting .277 with an .845 OPS and is a legitimate breakout candidate with the bat, already sporting five homers, just one shy of his career high.

Pavin Smith and Josh Naylor have provided plenty of offense from the left side. Smith is batting .329 and has a 1.074 OPS, easily recreating the production the team got from Joc Pederson last year. Likewise, Naylor is batting .316 with an .887 OPS and has 19 RBI, a pace for 95 on the season.

Glass Half Empty

After a decent start in the situational hitting category, the offense has struggled to come through in key situations over the past few weeks. Through April 18 the team had a .257 average with runners in scoring position (12th in MLB) and had driven in 84 runs, the second highest total. Similarly, the D-backs had the third-best performance in high leverage situations, posting a .906 OPS over that same stretch.

Since April 19 those numbers have plummeted against the better bullpens they've been facing as the scheduled toughens. Their .194 average with RISP ranks 26th since that date. Their high-leverage OPS of .588 ranks 15th. Note: League average OPS in high leverage is .660.

Add to that the team's right-hand hitters are batting a lowly .218 with a .686 OPS for the year, and mysteriously have a cumulative .656 OPS against left-hand pitching. Eugenio Suarez, despite 10 homers and an historic four-homer game, is batting .186. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is batting .204 with a .586 OPS.

Gabriel Moreno is batting .231 and still looking for his first homer of the year. He has three doubles and a paltry .269 slugging percentage. Randal Grichuk meanwhile has failed to reprise his lefty-killer role from 2024, batting .222 with a .663 OPS

Defense

Glass Half Full

The Diamondbacks made seven errors in their first five games, but since then have made only 13 errors in their next 27 games. Order has been restored, and the defense is once again reliable. Alek Thomas is playing nearly every day in center field, and Marte's Gold Glove caliber defense (+10 DRS in 2024) is back in at second base most nights going forward.

Glass Half Empty

The D-backs' 11 throwing errors are tied for the eighth-most in the league and Josh Naylor ranks 23 out of 24 first basemen in Fangraphs Scoops metric. After ranking in the top five of MLB teams in Defensive runs saved in 2023 and 2024, they currently rank 22nd with -1 DRS. Perhaps no player's defensive decline has been more glaring than Suarez, who has -4 DRS and is tied for the second highest error total in MLB. Meanwhile Jordan Lawlar waits in Triple-A Reno for his chance to play.

Summary

The Diamondbacks have a famously optimistic manager in Torey Lovullo, who never ceases to take the positive view of things. He has a good, deep roster to manage, and over the long haul there is a good chance the team will be able to come through and make the playoffs.

But the team faces challenges on multiple fronts that threaten that scenario, and are in the midst of an extremely tough portion of their schedule. This period of time could further expose the cracks in this team, or further cement their fortitude and ability to compete long terms. We'll just have to wait and see how it turns out. That's why they play the games.