It's Dinger Tuesday: Stanton to lead HR parade

Happy Dinger Tuesday! It's time to find us some games with homers as we take advantage of FanDuel's home run promotional day. If you're unfamiliar, you can bet $25 on a player hitting a HR on FanDuel, and regardless of whether he does or not, you'll get $5 back for every homer hit in that game.

The name of the game for us here at Bark Bets is circling the games in which we expect the most home runs hit. Weather has typically been our friend in helping us forecast these occurrences, and there are three games tonight that are looking at a projected boost in deep bombs.

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium has traditionally been known as a hitter's park due to its short right field, and the New York weather is handing us a +17% projected increase in homers. It's a logical game for us to begin our search. Even without the weather, this is a smash spot for the Yankees to hit some HRs. No team in baseball has hit more homers than the Yanks, and only one team has surrendered more bombs than Cincinnati. We have our desired team; now it's about finding the right batter.

Giancarlo Stanton (+290)

Stanton is our pick in this one. His hitting takes a massive leap against RHP, which he'll have tonight in Graham Ashcraft. 17 of his 22 HRs this season are off righties. Similarly, Ashcraft has struggled slowing down right-handed batters this season. His ISO and BA are both much higher to RHB, which benefits Stanton here. Stanton has four homers in his last 10 games, including his last game.

Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs

We won't apologize for keeping our targeted games simple. This Baltimore-Chicago game has favorable home run weather today, with a +15% increase in HRs expected. We mention these statistics a lot, and we should cite our sources. Ballpark Pal is a tremendous resource and shows you how today's weather can impact the game. While neither offense is known for its long bombs, these teams are tied for 17th in the MLB in HRs, good enough for us. Orioles starter Jordan Lyles has had an issue with home runs this season, allowing 12 this year. Thus, we look to the Chicago end to capitalize.

Willson Contreras (+290)

If you like following batters on a hot streak who have strong splits against the type of the pitcher on the mound, then Contreras is not your guy. What Contreras does bring to the table is a very strong history against Jordan Lyles. In just 7 PA, Contreras is batting .571 with two HRs against Lyles. Who are we to question this history? He certainly hits much better off LHP, so if this Lyles history doesn't result in a deep shot, perhaps he can match up against a lefty from the bullpen. Contreras has 13 HRs this season, last hitting one on June 29.

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

The last game of interest for us on Dinger Tuesday will be out in L.A. between the Angels and Astros. You likely guessed it, but yes this is another game where weather looks good. The Los Angeles wind is expected to aid batters in their quest to hit it over the fence, with a +15% increase in HRs projected. Both teams rank inside the top 10 of most home runs hit, which makes this game a particularly good target for the rules of this promotion. Houston starter Luis Garcia has seen 15 HRs hit off him in 82.2 IP this season, so we turn to the Angels bats here.

Shohei Ohtani (+290)

Ohtani does much better against RHP, with higher splits across the board. 84% of his homers this season have come against righties, and he's knocked two HRs against Garcia in 17 career PA. It all looks good to us, and Garcia has also been more generous to LHB, with lefties hitting him and hitting for power more often against the Astros pitcher. Ohtani has two homers in his past nine games, including a game against Houston.

We'd be remiss to not mention that a parlay of these three gentlemen comes in at +5831 on FanDuel. Probably best we throw a couple bucks on that one, just in case ...

In other news ...

NFL training camp just two weeks away — We are anxiously awaiting NFL season, and today is the two-week mark from when the majority of teams report to camp. We have you covered as we wait. If you're looking for a few betting angles, we have win total pieces daily and have launched a series on divisional futures as well. Most recently, we took a look at why it's not looking good for Chicago and found a value bet in the NFC East. Here are 25 things to keep an eye on once camps finally open. 

Miami Heat pushing to acquire Kevin Durant — Reports suggest that the Heat are determined to land Kevin Durant. It seems that the market hasn't quite materialized for Brooklyn how it envisioned, but there's every reason for the Nets to stay patient here with their superstar. Betting on what you hear from the rumor mill is tricky, but following the bread crumbs can help you land a better price on a future. The Heat are currently +1100 to win it all next season. Those odds will skyrocket should they land Durant. If you believe Miami is the team that makes it happen, now is probably the time to secure that price. The betting market is certainly expecting a trade: The Nets have dropped all the way to +2800 to win the NBA Finals next season, 13th highest in the league.

Rory McIlroy the betting favorite as The Open nears — The 150th Open Championship is almost here, the last major of the year in golf. As the tournament nears, it's Rory McIlroy ahead of the rest as the betting favorite. McIlroy is +900 to win The Open, followed by Xander Schauffele at +1200. McIlroy has had a great year at majors, finishing in the top 10 at all three. His last appearance at The Old Course was 2010; he finished third. There's reason to like McIlroy, even as the betting favorite.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll