It's no surprise to see Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler lead the National League Cy Young race again after top-three finishes last season. Chris Sale was doing well to defend his crown, too, before a rib injury knocked him out in June.
But it may have taken a clairvoyant to predict one of the other top contenders: Matthew Boyd of the Chicago Cubs. On Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals, the 34-year-old left-hander tossed his seventh shutout –– and third straight, part of a 23-inning scoreless streak –– for his 14th quality start in 20 tries this season.
Boyd carving through opposing lineups is commonplace now, but few expected this type of sustained performance going into the year. Boyd hadn't pitched more than 80 innings since 2019 due to injuries, and his ERA hovered between 4.39 and 5.27 across four seasons with the Tigers from 2016-19 as a regular in the starting rotation. The Cubs signed him to a two-year, $29 million contract in the offseason, which includes a mutual option for $15 million in 2027.
In June, I considered Boyd "one of the most cost-effective, underrated signings of year," given that 11 free agent starting pitchers signed contracts with greater overall value: Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Nick Pivetta, Clay Holmes, Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas.
But simply calling Boyd underrated has become a vast understatement as July winds down. He's now a legitimate Cy Young contender. After earning the first All-Star nod in his 11-year major league career, he's shown no signs of slowing down, and held the Royals scoreless over seven innings on Tuesday at Wrigley Field.
"Somehow, he's just gotten better in this stretch," Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. "He's just overwhelming hitters. It's just a great pitch mix and deception. You watch the Bobby Witt at-bats –– he's one of the best hitters in the game –– and what [Boyd] did there tonight is a great example of just how good the stuff is because that's a really, really good hitter. So it's been fun to watch him pitch, man. It's really pitching. He's ahead of guys, constantly ahead of guys, and it puts them in a hole and they have to be aggressive and he makes quality pitches time after time.
"Somehow he's just gotten better in this stretch."
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 23, 2025
Craig Counsell on Matthew Boyd's pitching pic.twitter.com/KpZ3oGJzf0
Here's a look at where Boyd ranks among qualified NL pitchers in various categories.
Elsewhere, Boyd ranks 10th in innings pitched (118.2), second in wins (11), 16th in strikeouts (108), seventh in home runs per nine innings (0.76), eighth in FIP (3.10) and seventh in win probability added (1.70) among qualified NL pitchers.
Looking ahead, Boyd ranks fifth in FanGraphs' Cy Young Award projection, behind Sanchez, Webb, Wheeler and Skenes in first place. However, Boyd is first in ESPN's Cy Young predictor, ahead of Freddy Peralta and Edwin Diaz. The FanDuel Sportsbook tabs two heavy favorites with Wheeler at -115 odds and Skenes at +100 odds, followed by Sanchez (+2000), Webb (+5000), Ranger Suarez (+6000), Andrew Abbott (+6000) and Boyd (+6500).
There's still a long way to go, and Boyd will need to maintain this impressive pace against stiff competition. But there's also something to be said about Boyd's ability to step up and save the Cubs' pitching staff when it lost Justin Steele to a season-ending injury and Shota Imanaga for about seven weeks. Because without him, the Cubs likely wouldn't be tied for the best record in baseball at 60-41.
He's pitching in games that truly mean something every time he takes the mound, and performing well under the pressure that comes with those high stakes should add to his candidacy. Wins are a flawed and outdated stat in some respects –– Skenes is 5-8 while clearly being one of the game's best; he's just on a bad team. But they shouldn't be overlooked when considering Boyd's Cy Young credentials.
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