Joe Ryan’s Sonny Gray remarks expose Twins’ development woes

Twins gambled and lost by not paying Gray

Without Gray, it's been Pablo Lopez and Ryan at the top of the Twins' starting rotation. The numerous starters the Twins have tried behind Lopez and Ryan have had significant ups and downs, giving Minnesota very little to consistently rely on.

This season, it's been a collection of mixed results between Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack (traded to the Tigers), Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Pierson Ohl, Jose Urena, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and Travis Adams.

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In 2024, they rolled primarily with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Paddack and Festa. Ober fnished with a 3.98 ERA and looked like a Cy Young contender for a stretch of two-plus months, but he's regressed this season with a 5.08 ERA.

Woods Richardson had a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts in 2024 but has regressed with a 4.58 ERA this season while giving up 16 homers in 89 1/3 innings — the same number of homers he allowed in 133 2/3 innings last season.

Matthews and Festa are promising prospects, but neither has been consistent enough to be viewed as a No. 3 starter on a playoff team. Festa is also now out for the season with a shoulder injury, and it's unclear if the injury will linger into 2026.

Bradley and Abel could be fixtures in the 2026 rotation, but they too have had their problems, both with the Twins and with the teams they were acquired from at the July 31 trade deadline (the Rays and Phillies, respectively).

Letting Gray go for nothing wouldn't look so bad if Ober didn't fall off a cliff and if Matthews or Festa would've developed rapidly into rotational fixtures. But that's the price the Twins paid for refusing to give Gray the money he commanded as a staff ace. They took a gamble by attempting to develop pitchers with promise rather than pay an established stud, and they lost the bet.

Gray wound up fanning 204 batters in 166 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA in his first season with the Cardinals, and through 29 starts this season he has a 4.45 ERA, though that's inflated due to some bad luck and defensive issues because his xERA (expected ERA) is 3.93.

If the Twins still had Gray, they would've been more capable of surviving Ryan's injury late last season and Lopez's injury that knocked him out for three months this season. Instead, those injuries crushed Minnesota's starting pitching.

Where's the development?

How many pitchers have the Twins hyped up only to have them get injured or fail to meet expectations? Matthews and Festa are just the tip of the iceberg.

Woods Richardson was a prized prospect who came to the Twins in the trade that sent Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays. He's decent, but not a guy who the Twins should feel comfortable with in a playoff game.

What about Andrew Morris? Corey Lewis? Marco Raya? All three were projected by MLB Pipeline to be MLB-ready at some point in 2025. Well, here we are in September and none of them appear to be on their way.

Morris was sidelined by a strained forearm and has posted a 4.08 ERA in 18 appearances at Triple-A St. Paul.

Lewis has a 7.32 ERA with 81 strikeouts and 63 walks in 67 2/3 innings at Triple-A St. Paul. He's been working on a knuckleball, though his control has led to a significant walk problem. He's currently in the development list, which is for healthy minor league players who need to refine their skills.

Raya was, at one point, a top-six prospect for the Twins. The 23-year-old has a 6.12 ERA in 26 appearances at Triple-A St. Paul. That's not remotely close to being good enough to make the jump to the big leagues.

If none of the prospects — Matthews, Festa, Mooris, Lewis and Raya — are developing into trustworthy big-league pitchers, then what belief should fans have in the Twins to develop Abel into a quality arm for the 2026 season?

Abel is Minnesota's top pitching prospect and No. 5 prospect overall, per MLB Pipeline. He's had two starts with the Twins and he was shelled in both, and the Twins have since optioned him back to Triple-A.

Just imagine what the Twins might've been capable of with Lopez, Gray and Ryan as a 1-2-3 punch in the rotation. Sadly, imagination is the only thing that will bring the results of what could've been. Instead, the Twins have chosen a path of risk for the sake of the bottom line, and the result is back-to-back disappointing seasons and very little to look forward to this winter and beyond.

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