Jordan Lawlar's Hot Start in Reno Leads to Big League Promotion

The long wait is over, as the Diamondbacks are reportedly calling up their top prospect Jordan Lawlar to the major league roster. Lawlar opened the year with Triple-A Reno, with the need to get him everyday reps at the plate and work on expanding his defensive versatility to include second and third base.

The need for him to get consistent reps stems from him missing almost all of the 2024 season due to injuries. Thumb and hamstring injuries limited Lawlar to just 12 games with Reno, so the organization prioritized his development over the potential rewards from the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

In 37 games with Reno, he's slashing .336/.413/.579 with six home runs and 13 stolen bases in 14 attempts. Accounting for the extreme offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, FanGraphs considers Lawlar's offensive production to be 43% better than the average hitter with a 143 wRC+. He's also grown more comfortable playing second and third base, having previously played almost exclusively at shortstop since being selected sixth overall in the 2021 MLB Draft entering the 2025 season.

On the surface, it's evident that Lawlar has played well enough to force the Diamondbacks' hand in promoting him to the major leagues. Before Sunday's game against the Dodgers, the organization's top prospect was a major topic in manager Torey Lovullo's pregame media session. Lovullo described Lawlar as a "once every five-year player".

Prospect pundits agree with the organization's outlook on Lawlar, as he's currently listed as the No. 4 prospect on MLB's Top 100 list at the time of his call-up. On all prospect publications, he is Arizona's consensus top prospect.

Looking under the hood, there is a clear trend in how he fares against certain pitch types. Lawlar has crushed fastballs in Triple-A, hitting .420 with a .750 slugging percentage. However, he's shown a vulnerability against secondary stuff. The two different pitch types he's struggled with in Reno has been changeups and right-handed breaking balls, with the latter being a huge area of focus for him to improve at.

Against right-handed breaking balls, Lawlar is hitting .152 with a .316 slugging percentage and a .215 wOBA. That significantly lags behind the PCL's right-on-right averages of .237, .400, and .305 respectively. It's clear that handling same-handed spin is his biggest weakness at the plate, one that can be exploited by major league pitchers.

One of the areas that the Diamondbacks wanted Lawlar to work on in Triple-A was eliminating right-on-right chase, especially in certain counts. This year, his chase rate is at 25.2% against right-handers. Going by pitch type, he chases four-seamers (23), sliders (16), and sweepers (11) the most. The three pitches account for 72% of his chases against right-handed pitchers.

Lawlar's numbers when he chases out of the zone go right in line with his overall performance against specific pitch types. While he does damage against fastballs, hitting .571 with a 1.286 slugging percentage against four-seamers out of the zone, the slider and sweeper have given him the most trouble. His whiff rate on those two pitches comes in at 56.3% and 63.6% when he chases.

That's not unusual for a young prospect, especially one as young as the 22-year-old Lawlar. At the major league level, he should expect teams to attack that weakness and make him prove he can handle such pitches. It will be a tougher test than the stuff he's faced in Triple-A, as the quality of pitches is significantly better. It's often why the jump from Triple-A to the majors is cited as the most difficult for prospects.

Improving his chase rate against those two specific pitches is the next step in his development as a hitter. With an obvious weakness at the plate, Lawlar should see a steady diet of sliders from right-handed pitchers, especially in swing counts or when he's behind. Lovullo feels pretty confident that with consistent reps, Lawlar will improve his ability to handle those specific pitches.

"There has been a little bit of chase to certain pitches and certain counts, and he targets that stuff on his own. He gets that information on his own. He's like, 'I got to be better at this than this,' and he is just a different breed. He feels like either you're winning or you're growing. That's his mindset, and he wants to grow and win at the same time."

Lawlar should have the opportunity to get everyday reps at the plate with the Diamondbacks in his second stint with the team. Due to his increased defensive versatility, there are more pathways to get him in the lineup without sacrificing too much playing time from their regular starters. A good chunk of his starts could come at second base, as Ketel Marte is in a return to play protocol coming off his hamstring injury.

Lovullo didn't express much concern over moving Lawlar around the infield, feeling like that question was answered when he was in Reno. He has played 150 innings at second, 72 at third, and 90 at short, as moving around the field did not negatively impact offense or defense. Because of that, they feel he can do the same at the major league level.

How the Diamondbacks' top prospect handles major league pitching the second time around will have a major impact on how the organization sets up its infield for the foreseeable future. If he shows enough improvement to warrant an everyday role in 2026, third base would be the best opportunity with Eugenio Suárez reaching free agency and creating an opening at that position.

Lawlar has the opportunity to cement himself as a cornerstone in the Diamondbacks' infield. He's under team control through the 2031 season, so he'll be in Arizona for the foreseeable future.