Just Baseball's midseason awards

Shohei Ohtani is well on his way to winning a third consecutive MVP Award. As I write this piece, he leads the NL in home runs, runs scored, OPS, wRC+, Win Probability Added, and combined fWAR (hitting and pitching).

It doesn’t look like he’s going to repeat his 50/50 season, but his 12 stolen bases are still impressive for such a powerful slugger. He’s also on pace to surpass his previous career-high in triples and walks, proving that he remains one of the most complete offensive players in the game.

And he’s back on the mound and throwing gas.

With all that said, the NL MVP is still very much up for grabs. While Ohtani was the overwhelming favorite among our staff, any one of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, James Wood, Juan Soto, or Fernando Tatis Jr. could easily unseat Ohtani as the frontrunner at some point over the next three months.

I wouldn’t entirely count out Ronald Acuña Jr., either, given how well he’s played since he made his season debut in May. The same goes for Corbin Carroll, especially if he can return from the IL (he has a chip fracture in his left wrist) sometime soon.

AL MVP: Aaron Judge, NYY

This was a tight vote, which was so much fun to see.

Aaron Judge, already a two-time MVP, is playing the best baseball of his career. Indeed, as far as fWAR is concerned, he’s on pace for the best single season of baseball since Babe Ruth’s 1927 campaign.

But somehow, somehow, he barely earned half the votes from our staff. A poll in the Just Baseball Discord was just as split. Why? Cal Raleigh, that’s why.

Raleigh hasn’t been as valuable as Judge at the plate, but he’s not far off. He’s on pace for more home runs and more stolen bases. Oh, right, and he’s also a terrific defensive catcher. We could very well be watching the best full season by a catcher in baseball history.

It’s one historic season against another. To me, and to a slight majority of the Just Baseball staff, what Judge is doing is just a tiny bit more historic, but this race is far from over.

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, PIT

This vote was just as close as the AL MVP, with Paul Skenes beating Zack Wheeler in our staff poll by one vote. However, those polled in the Just Baseball Discord leaned more heavily toward Skenes.

As of writing, Skenes leads the NL in ERA, but Wheeler made plenty of progress toward closing that gap with a strong performance in June. Wheeler also leads the league in strikeouts and K-BB%, but Skenes has the lowest home run rate and the highest fWAR in the Senior Circuit.

You could argue that Skenes has the better pure stuff, but Wheeler has a much longer track record of success. From a narrative perspective, each would make for a great story if he took home his first career Cy Young Award.

Still, Skenes is the favorite right now, and if the season ended today, no one would be mad to see him crowned the NL’s top pitcher.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, DET

Out of all the awards we voted on, this one came the closest to being a unanimous decision. Tarik Skubal earned all but one vote.

Yet, while Skubal is certainly the most likely winner – he has great numbers and a great track record, plus the most impressive underlying metrics and the best stuff – the race is much closer than our voting would have you think.

As I write this piece on July 3, Skubal only ranks fourth in the AL in ERA, trailing Hunter Brown (who received the lone non-Skubal vote), Max Fried, and Jacob deGrom. Skubal also ranks fourth in innings, behind Garrett Crochet, Fried, and Framber Valdez.

Each of those five other pitchers is still in the running for the AL Cy Young, giving Skubal plenty of intriguing competition.

NL Rookie of the Year: Drake Baldwin, ATL

There is no clear frontrunner for the NL Rookie of the Year, but Braves catcher Drake Baldwin earned the majority of votes from our staff.

Baldwin has a 125 wRC+ with nine home runs in 57 games, all while playing solid defense behind the plate. That sets him apart from fellow rookie catcher Agustín Ramírez, who is also hitting well (he leads NL rookies with 12 home runs) but has poor defensive metrics and has played half his games at DH.

On the other side of the ball, Chad Patrick has been a delightful surprise for the Brewers this year, but his mid-3.00s ERA and 24.4% strikeout rate don’t exactly make for a sexy ROY profile. Meanwhile, his teammate Jacob Misiorowski has the stuff to make for a very attractive ROY, but he hasn’t played enough to warrant much consideration quite yet.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jacob Wilson, ATH

Jacob Wilson is looking to become the first rookie since Ichiro to win the batting title. Judge is going to make that difficult, but the fact that Wilson is even in the running when Judge is in the midst of one of the best offensive seasons many of us have ever seen tells you all you need to know.

Wilson leads AL rookies in games, hits, extra-base hits, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, wRC+, and fWAR. He certainly isn’t going to win the Gold Glove at shortstop, but his arm is strong, and his range isn’t so much of a liability that his bat can’t make up for it.

While any other AL rookies will have a hard time catching up to Wilson, Red Sox backstop might have Carlos Narvaez the best shot. Unlike Wilson, he wasn’t on anyone’s ROY radar entering the season, but he has provided Boston with spectacular defense and surprisingly strong offense.

Wilson’s teammate Nick Kurtz (12 homers in 49 games) is another exciting contender, but he’s playing catch-up after starting the season in the minors and then missing two weeks in May and June with an injury.

NL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin, SFG

This was a close vote, but Bob Melvin edged out Craig Counsell for the honor. The Giants haven’t played nearly as well as the Cubs, but one could argue their success was far less expected. They’re not going to win the NL West, but they look genuinely competitive thanks to many solid performances from up and down the lineup.

If Melvin ends up winning Manager of the Year, he would become just the fourth skipper to win the award four times, joining Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa, and Buck Showalter. Melvin previously won with the Diamondbacks in 2007 and the Athletics in 2012 and 2018.

AL Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, DET

I’m honestly a little surprised that any other managers received votes from our staff. No team has exceeded expectations as dramatically as the Tigers this year, and they’re doing it with a roster made up largely of homegrown young players coming into their own and veterans enjoying bounce-back seasons.

On top of that, Hinch has done a great job managing his bullpen. Tigers relievers only rank 16th in ERA and 19th in FIP, but they have thrived in higher-leverage spots. Their 4.40 clutch score (per FanGraphs) leads the league, while their 35 “meltdown” outings are the second-fewest of any bullpen. Plus, the Tigers are 12-7 in one-run games.

Is some of that just good fortune? Maybe. But Hinch deserves plenty of credit for helping his players create their own luck.