Justin Turner to Sign with Cubs: What to Make of Move

The Cubs reportedly signed Justin Turner to a one-year deal on February 18, giving the 40-year-old a shot at this 17th Major League season. However, Turner, a right-handed bat, will head to Wrigley Field for 2025 after arguably his worst offensive season in the last decade.

A Look at Turner

The 2023 campaign was a renaissance for Justin Turner, who belted 23 home runs, drove in a career-high 96, and fit in very well in hitter-friendly Boston. However, Turner, who entered 2024 at 39 years of age, had to wait until late January 2024 to get another MLB deal.

Turner landed with the Blue Jays, a team in need of support for the big bats. However, Turner didn’t come close to his offensive production with Boston. Between Seattle and Toronto, Turner slashed .259/.354/.383 (.737 OPS), putting up numbers not seen from him since his days as a Met.

The Blue Jays traded the veteran infielder in the summer to Seattle, where his numbers slightly ticked up. Turner posted a .766 OPS over 48 games with the Mariners.

The power outage on Turner’s end was particularly alarming. The new Cub had just a 4.6% Barrel% in 2024, far lower than the 8.0% from two years ago. Turner’s bat speed ranked in the first percentile — among the worst in the league — at 65.1 MPH.

Still, his slugging percentage of .383 would have ranked as the seventh-lowest among primary first basemen, had Turner played more at the position (I’ll get into that in a minute).

But while the bat speed was low, Turner still maintained his short swing and ability to keep the bat in the zone longer. Hence, why Turner rarely whiffed (17%) or struck out (17.6%).

Despite the loss of pop, Turner was still productive in terms of getting on base. His .354 on-base percentage would have ranked sixth-best among primary first basemen (min. 375 PA), something the 40-year-old has been able to do for much of his career.

Defensively, Turner spent most of the year as a DH, both in Seattle and Toronto. He played 46 games at first and six at third, the latter of which was his primary position for almost a decade. However, Turner never had great arm strength at third and is realistically a tough fit at the corner nowadays.

Per reports, the Cubs will sign Justin Turner to a one-year deal worth $6MM.

Analysis

The Cubs’ one glaring hole in their infield heading into camp was at third base.

Chicago traded away incumbent Isaac Paredes — who never had significant offensive success last season with the Cubs — to Houston in the Kyle Tucker trade. The Cubs picked up Gage Workman in the Rule 5 Draft and also have Matt Shaw — a non-roster invitee this spring — waiting in the wings. But, an oblique injury has limited Shaw in camp thus far.

The team was reportedly in on Alex Bregman. However, Bregman signed with the Boston Red Sox earlier this month.

This signing doesn’t necessarily fill their hole at third base. While Turner did play there briefly in 2024, his below-average range in the field heavily limits him.

If anything, Turner should be used to spell Michael Busch at first on some days, especially against left-handed pitching. The Cubs could also theoretically have Turner play first and Busch at third with this current setup. Busch got regular looks at third base back in the Dodgers system back in 2023, even though he was a primary second baseman before that year.