Kansas City Royals' offseason reviewed

The Royals focused mostly on adding veteran pitching, while clearing some space on the position-player side for new younger talents to get a larger big-league opportunity.

Major League Signings

• Jordan Lyles, SP: Two years, $17M
• Zack Greinke, SP: One year, $8.5M
• Aroldis Chapman, RP: One year, $3.75M
• Ryan Yarbrough, SP/RP: One year, $3M

2023 spending: $23.75M
Total spending: $32.25M

Option Decisions

• None

Trades & Claims

• Acquired RP Josh Taylor from Red Sox for IF Adalberto Mondesi
• Acquired minor league RPs Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz from Twins for OF Michael A. Taylor
• Acquired cash considerations from Orioles for 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn
• Acquired cash considerations from Cardinals for RP Anthony Misiewicz
• Acquired minor league RP Jacob Wallace from Red Sox for RP Wyatt Mills

Notable Minor League Signings

• Jackie Bradley Jr., Franmil Reyes, Matt Duffy, Johan Camargo, Nick Wittgren, Jorge Bonifacio, Mike Mayers, Matt Beaty, Ryan Goins, Kohl Stewart, Cody Poteet, Brooks Kriske, Jose Briceno, Jakson Reetz

Extensions

• None

Notable Losses

• Taylor, Mondesi, O’Hearn, Misiewicz, Sebastian Rivero, Brent Rooker, Jake Brentz (unsigned)

Heading into J.J. Picollo’s first winter as Kansas City’s general manager, the executive was pretty forthright about the team’s plans. With an eye toward sticking to roughly the same $88M payroll as last season, the Royals intended to add one or two veteran hitters (one of them a right-handed bat if possible), at least two starting pitchers, and some additional bullpen and rotation depth.

On the pitching end of that wishlist, it was mission accomplished. All of the Royals’ guaranteed spending went toward the mound, as the club bolstered the rotation with free agents Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough, while also bringing back a franchise icon in Zack Greinke. On the relief end, the Royals brought in one of the most accomplished closers of recent years by signing Aroldis Chapman for a late-game role, if not necessarily as the team’s next ninth-inning man.

Of course, there was a reason why Chapman was available for a modest one-year, $3.75M deal. Chapman is now entering his age-35 season, and his effectiveness has diminished over the last two seasons as his walk rates have skyrocketed. While the southpaw’s control has long been inconsistent, Chapman’s 11.5% walk rate over his first 11 MLB seasons was substantially lower than the 16.4% walk rate he posted in 2021-22. His once-elite fastball has lost effectiveness and some velocity (down to “only” 97.7 mph in 2022), and batters also made far more hard contact against Chapman’s pitches in 2022 than at any other point in the 2015-22 Statcast era.

If that wasn’t enough, Chapman also spent close to nine weeks on the injured list last season due to an Achilles injury and an infection related to a recently-added tattoo. After Chapman skipped a team workout prior to the start of the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Guardians, the writing was pretty clearly on the wall that his time in New York was through.

Ideally for the Royals, Chapman would regain his old form in a new environment and help incumbent closer Scott Barlow solidify late-game leads (and perhaps even grab a few saves ahead of Barlow in certain situations). That scenario would make Chapman an interesting trade chip heading into the deadline, assuming that K.C. isn’t in contention by midseason.

That short-term-asset mindset could apply to some of Kansas City’s other winter acquisitions, possibly any of the minor league signings who rebuild their value at the MLB level. Greinke could potentially be flipped to a contender but probably only if he approves such a move, assuming the Royals take the same approach with Greinke as they did prior to last year’s trade deadline. While it wouldn’t be shocking if either Lyles or Yarbrough was also dealt for the right offer, the Royals at least obtained some extra control with those signings, since Yarbrough is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season and Lyles was inked to a two-year guarantee.

In an era of pitching specialization, Lyles is a bit of a throwback as a classic innings-eater, tossing 359 frames with the Rangers and Orioles in 2021-22. Between durability and an increasingly solid walk rate, Lyles brings some pluses to the K.C. rotation, and Lyles’ numbers over his career have unsurprisingly been generally better when he has played in more pitcher-friendly venues (which bodes well for a move to Kauffman Stadium). With low strikeout totals and an unspectacular 4.76 ERA since the start of the 2019 season, Lyles isn’t a frontline starter, but the Royals are only asking for him to hold the fort.

Over five seasons with the Rays, Yarbrough was a more of a modern take on the “innings eater” model, working as both a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) and as a traditional starter. New Royals manager Matt Quatraro is very familiar with Yarbrough from his past role as Tampa Bay’s bench coach, and he’ll now try to get the left-hander on track after Yarbrough posted a 4.90 ERA over 235 innings since the start of the 2021 season. Despite elite soft-contact rates and solid-to-excellent walk rates, Yarbrough’s lack of strikeout ability and lack of velocity have started to catch up with him, and batters are teeing off on his once-solid cutter/changeup combination.

Yarbrough is ticketed to begin the season as a starter, but Greinke, Lyles and Brady Singer are the only locks for a full-time rotation job. Between Yarbrough’s ability to work as a reliever and the fact that Brad Keller lost his starting spot last year, the Royals have some flexibility in deciding what they want to do with the last two rotation slots. With injuries, performance or perhaps trades factoring in to the Royals’ decision-making process, former top draft picks like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic or Jackson Kowar could get some starts as the season develops.

These highly touted young arms have yet to show much at the MLB level, which explains why Kansas City has had to target veteran fill-ins for the rotation. To that end, the hirings of Brian Sweeney as pitching coach, Mitch Stetter as bullpen coach and Zach Bove as an assistant pitching coach and director of major league pitching strategy are perhaps more important than any roster move, since Picollo is overhauling the Royals’ approach in developing and managing pitchers. It certainly seems as if K.C. will be putting a new focus on analytics, and Quatraro (Tampa Bay) and Sweeney (Cleveland) are both coming from teams with a strong track record of getting the most out of their pitchers.

If the fixes can take hold quickly, the Royals might see some significant improvement from their pitching side, which would be a huge step forward in their plans to finally break out of rebuild mode. Naturally the club would also love to see development from its core of position players, and yet while the situation around the diamond didn’t need quite as much immediate help as the rotation, the Royals certainly put a lot more emphasis on adding pitching than hitting this winter.

Finances could’ve been a factor given the rising prices for pitching throughout the sport. The market allowed for Lyles to land a two-year deal and Greinke to land at least $8.5M on a one-year contract, though Greinke’s deal has plenty of easily reachable innings incentives that could boost the value to as much as $16M. This contract represented something of a middle ground between the $13M guaranteed Greinke received last season and the Royals’ desire for a more incentive-heavy deal with the 39-year-old this time around.

Without much leverage to boost the payroll, the Royals’ desire to upgrade the lineup didn’t really materialize, as the team is hoping to strike pay dirt on at least one of its minor league signings. Such veterans as Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Duffy, Jorge Bonifacio, Matt Beaty and Johan Camargo are in camp as non-roster invitees, and Reyes probably represents the best chance for Kansas City to land that desired right-handed hitting upgrade.

The Royals saw plenty of Reyes during his time in Cleveland over the last four seasons, and it certainly looked as if Reyes had broken out as a fearsome power bat following a 37-homer season in 2021. However, Reyes’ production completely cratered in 2022, to the point that the Guardians (a team themselves in sore need of power) designated him for assignment in August.

Reyes’ numbers only slightly improved after joining the Cubs on a waiver claim, and the 27-year-old now returns to the AL Central looking for a bounce-back season. Kauffman Stadium isn’t exactly the ideal setting for a power-only player to rebound, yet since the Royals finished 26th of 30 teams in home runs in 2022, they’ll take whatever slugging potential they can get from Reyes as a DH and occasional outfielder.

The other minor league signings give K.C. some veteran depth behind the plan to let the kids play in 2023. Duffy, Beaty and Camargo will support the projected infield plan of Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, Vinnie Pasquantino at first base, one of Michael Massey or Nicky Lopez at second base with the other in a backup role, and Hunter Dozier likely to get most of the third base work. There’s some fluidity in this plan, as Dozier can play other positions and (more pointedly) hasn’t hit much in any of his last three seasons, so Nate Eaton or Maikel Garcia could eat into the playing time at the hot corner.

While non-roster players are a part of every team’s spring training, the Royals have a particular need after moving some position players over the offseason. In keeping the payroll stable, spending a bit extra to sign pitching meant that some salary had to be cut elsewhere, which certainly factored in to the club’s decisions to trade Michael A. Taylor (owed $4.5M in 2023) to the Twins, Adalberto Mondesi ($3.045M) to the Red Sox and Ryan O’Hearn ($1.4M) to the Orioles.

None of the three deals were a real surprise, since Taylor’s name had been floated in trade talks since last year’s deadline, and it was perhaps unexpected that Kansas City even tendered O’Hearn a contract. Mondesi was once one of baseball’s elite prospects, yet as the years went by and Mondesi was sidelined by one injury after another, the Royals were ready to move on.

Josh Taylor (coming to K.C. in the Mondesi trade) is no stranger to the injured list himself, having missed all of 2022 due to back problems, but the left-hander also brings a live fastball, lots of strikeouts and three years of team control to Kansas City’s bullpen, so Taylor might be a very nice addition if he can stay healthy.

Pasquantino and Nick Pratto already reduced O’Hearn’s role as a first baseman, and Taylor became expendable since the Royals have Drew Waters as their projected new center fielder. That plan is on hold for the moment, however, since an oblique strain will likely keep Waters on the injured list for the start of the season. Waters’ injury opened the door for the Royals to sign Bradley as center field depth, with Kyle Isbel as the first option up the middle while Waters recovers.

With a few weeks to go before Opening Day, K.C. might not be done making lower-level moves or maybe even more significant trades involving in-house veterans. For instance, Lopez drew some attention from the White Sox in January, though that particular avenue might be closed since the Sox have since signed Elvis Andus to fill their need for second base help. If the Royals are confident in Massey as the starting second baseman and feel that the likes of Garcia or Duffy can provide middle infield backup, Lopez might still get shopped — the Dodgers stand out as an obvious possibility, since Gavin Lux will miss the season after tearing his ACL.

Picollo openly said that the Royals weren’t going to be too aggressive with their spending or roster-building during the winter, since they first need to figure out what they have in so many players who are lacking in proven MLB production or even playing time at the sport’s highest level. Perhaps the most interesting development would be if the Royals were able to negotiate contract extensions with any of their more clear building blocks, like Witt or Singer.