Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox predictions, picks and odds for Wed. 8/7

Royals vs. Red Sox Odds

Wednesday, August 7, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Royals vs. Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers

Royals vs. Red Sox Preview

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

Cole Ragans has emerged as one of the best pitchers on the Royals’ staff this season. The 26-year-old has a 3.36 ERA, a 3.29 xERA, and a 3.45 SIERA over 134 innings this season. In those innings, Ragans has amassed an impressive 159 strikeouts, ranking in the 87th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and 92nd percentile in whiff rate.

Ragans ranks 15th among 66 qualifying pitchers in Stuff+. However, he ranks 47th in Location+ as he has a slightly below-average walk rate. Ragans does have solid contact numbers as he ranks in the 71st percentile in barrel rate allowed, the 62nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and the 58th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.

The Royals rank 17th in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA. They walk at the third-lowest rate in baseball but strike out at the second-lowest rate.

Kansas City has shown some power, ranking 10th in SLG and 12th in ISO. The Royals are also 10th in hard-hit rate, 18th in barrel rate, and fifth in average exit velocity. They have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate in the league and rank third in fly ball rate, elevating many batted balls.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Kutter Crawford will take the mound for Boston on Wednesday night. He has a 3.81 ERA and 4.04 xERA in 127 2/3 IP in his second full season in the big league rotation.

Crawford has flashed excellent control, posting a walk rate of 5.7%, which ranks in the 85th percentile. His strikeout rate is slightly above average, in the 56th percentile.

Crawford’s issues have come from his batted balls — specifically, barrels. He ranks in the sixth percentile of qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed, likely because he can't keep balls out of the air, ranking in the 12th percentile in ground-ball rate.

The Red Sox rank eighth in wRC+ and second in wOBA this season. They strike out at the fourth-highest rate but rank second in SLG and fourth in OBP. The offense has been on fire, as they lead baseball in wRC+ (145) over the past month.

Boston ranks fifth in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and eighth in exit velocity this season. While the Red Sox hit the ball hard, their .325 BABIP may be lucky. Boston ranks second in batting average this season but 14th in expected batting average.

Royals vs. Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis

Boston’s offense has been on a tear lately, making it a tough matchup for Ragans. The Red Sox are great on the road and have been only slightly worse against left-handers this season.

But, considering Ragans’ strikeout ability, I think he could put a solid start against this offense.

Conversely, I think Kansas City’s offense has the upper hand. Crawford struggles to keep the ball on the ground and rarely walks or strikes batters. The Royals have been great at elevating the ball, and with their contact quality numbers, I think we could see some power on display.

My favorite bet in this game is the Royals to score over 2.5 runs in the first five innings. I like the matchup between their approach at the plate and Crawford’s weaknesses. Crawford has been a solid pitcher, so there’s a chance this doesn’t hit, but at +114, I love taking the Royals to put at least three runs on the board against him.

Pick: Royals F5 TT Over 2.5 (+114 at DraftKings) Play to 2.5 (+105)

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