Kevin Gausman Is Catching Fire at the Perfect Time

After a bit of a down year in 2024, Gausman has put together a much better performance this season. Over 30 starts and 183.2 innings, Gausman has worked to a 3.38 ERA and struck out 177 batters while walking 47. 

This is not entirely surprising, as Gausman has been remarkably consistent throughout his career. He has made 30 or more starts every full season since 2016, and sports a career 3.80 ERA.

Gausman became particularly effective after the 2020 season. Since the start of 2021, Gausman owns a 3.30 ERA over 916.1 innings and 156 starts. He has 1008 strikeouts to just 236 walks over this span.

That said, Gausman’s step back in 2024 was enough to raise questions of possible regression. He worked to a 3.83 ERA over 181 innings and 31 starts, striking out 162 batters with slightly lower fastball velocity.

This directly followed a 2023 campaign that saw Gausman lead the American League in strikeouts with 237 over a comparable 185 innings. He was still serviceable in 2024 but was unable to achieve the same level of swing-and-miss as before.

However, Gausman has turned a corner this year and seems to have adjusted well. He still has a lower strikeout rate than years prior (8.67 K/9). But, Gausman has found a way to succeed in spite of this.

Gausman has increased both his first pitch strike rate by 4.7% and his in-zone pitching by 2.4%. By commanding the zone and getting ahead in the count, Gausman has been able to keep hitters off balance more reliably.

Analyzing the Arsenal

In addition to Gausman’s change in approach, his pitch metrics have trended positively. Gausman’s signature splitter has been particularly effective, with batters managing just a .167 BA and .283 SLG against the pitch.

Gausman has thrown a slower splitter this year, averaging 84.9 mph with greater depth than in 2024. As Gausman’s main putaway pitch, the splitter has generated a 39.1% whiff rate and 34.8% strikeout rate.

This has paired very well with his increase in fastball velocity. Gausman has averaged 94.4 mph on his fastball in 2025, creating a 9.5 mph separation between Gausman’s primary and secondary offerings. 

The resurgence of Gausman’s fastball has been critical to his success. While Gausman’s fastball registered a 43rd-percentile run value in 2024, it has skyrocketed to the 98th percentile this year.

His success with this pitch has come in large part due to better command this year. By attacking early in counts and tunneling his fastball and splitter, Gausman has allowed his lowest barrel rate since 2022.

Gausman’s slider has not fared so well, but it has been thrown more sparingly against primarily right-handed hitters. It currently owns a .333 BAA and .611 SLG allowed. This is in spite of Gausman registering a 36% whiff rate on the pitch, which indicates that it may be more of a location issue.

Overall, Gausman’s arsenal has been much more effective this year, and seems to have gotten better as the year has gone on.

Down the Stretch

Gausman’s performance has oscillated between ace-level production and average or below for most of this year.

In March and April, Gausman started out the year with a 4.50 ERA through 34 innings. Then, his next 32 innings over the course of May earned him a 2.81 ERA.

The pattern repeated over the next two months as well. Gausman posted a 5.46 ERA in the month of June, and followed it up with a 2.51 ERA in July.

In August, Gausman’s performance did not fall off quite as far, as he earned a 3.55 ERA in 38 innings. However, Gausman certainly swung back in the other direction as he owns a 0.78 ERA over 23 innings in September.

His most impressive start as of late came on September 11, when Gausman allowed just two hits in a complete game shutout. He struck out nine batters in this performance while walking one.

From a holistic perspective, Gausman has performed exceptionally well as the year has progressed. He has pitched six or more innings while allowing two runs or fewer in all but one start since August 6. 

Going back further, Gausman has allowed two or more runs in just three of his past 15 starts. Since the start of July, Gausman’s 2.51 ERA ranks eighth among all MLB starters with 70 innings or more over that span.

This bodes very well for the Blue Jays, who are now gearing up for a serious postseason run. They will have a strong advantage with Gausman as their ace if he maintains this level of performance.

Right on Cue

The Blue Jays still have a tough road ahead, but the American League pennant race is wide open. For them to be the first American League team to clinch a postseason spot with only six games to go is remarkable. It is indicative of there being parity amongst American League contenders.

Their Toronto faithful can sigh a breath of relief now that they have made the cut, there is still work to be done. Luckily, having Gausman in peak form certainly makes them a formidable adversary in a short series.

This comes in spite of recent struggles from his teammates in the rotation. José Berríos and Max Scherzer have both been very shaky, and Chris Bassitt just landed on the injured list after a strong start to September.

However, the Blue Jays’ rotation has recently been reinforced by the call-up of Trey Yesavage. It will be interesting to see whether they move him to the bullpen for October, but he dazzled in his MLB debut.

Regardless, Gausman will have to maintain his dominance as best he can for the Blue Jays to win it all. Even with a level playing field, it will be crucial for the Blue Jays to get ahead in each series. Allowing Gausman to set the tone in Game 1 will give them more than a fighting chance.

Look for Gausman to continue to lead the Blue Jays’ rotation this October as they seek to lift the Commissioner’s Trophy for the first time since 1993.

Stats were taken prior to play on September 22.