Key weakness for prime Major League Baseball contenders

No matter how sparkling the record, every prime Major League Baseball contender has a pressure point that could cause its season to come tumbling down in October. Here is a look at the weakness of the teams who, according to Fangraphs, have an 80 percent chance or more to make the playoffs:

NEW YORK YANKEES (83-43, 1st AL EAST)

9: Postseason starts by healthy starters

Of all the teams in clear control of their postseason destiny, the Yankees most needed to upgrade their starting pitching. New York's starters, troubled by injuries, have been unimpressive even when healthy. While the Astros added Zack Greinke and Aaron Sanchez, and even the out-of-contention Reds snagged Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline, the Yankees swung and missed, leaving a mediocre starting staff to fend for itself.

Working the sixth-fewest innings in the AL, Yankee starters have a 4.78 ERA. Neither James Paxton nor Domingo German has pitched in the postseason. J.A. Happ has only one win in 11 career postseason appearances. CC Sabathia has a postseason track record (23 starts and 10 wins), but he has struggled with injuries. Masahiro Tanaka has had success in the postseason (30 innings, 1.50 ERA), but he has been hit hard since the All-Star break (6.46 ERA, .281 batting average). 

MINNESOTA TWINS (76-49, 1st AL CENTRAL)

6-7: Record against Indians

Armed with a rebuilt offense and new leader on the bench in Rocco Baldelli, the Twins were the biggest surprise early. By June 2, their lead in the AL Central had stretched to 11.5 games. Over the past two months, however, Minnesota has struggled and division rival Cleveland has come back to life. The Twins have dropped seven of 13 against the Indians, with six more games awaiting. Meanwhile, no other division leader has worse than a .500 record against its closest divisional foe. Minnesota pitching has imploded since the All-Star break, with opponents batting .273 against it, the third-worst mark in AL. Only one pitcher has an ERA under 4.00: Michael Pineda, 3.07, who is out with a triceps injury. If postseason success is all about momentum, the Twins may be in trouble.

CLEVELAND INDIANS (74-51, 2nd AL Central)

.250: Batting average with runners in scoring position

The Indians entered the season with a lineup that faced significant challenges -- Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso were gone from the previous season. Then in spring training Francisco Lindor suffered an ankle injury that cost him much of April. Thanks to a strong starting staff, the Indians crawled back into contention, nearly erasing an 11-game deficit. The offense has improved, but it's still no match for the powerhouses of the Yankees, Astros and Twins. The Indians have especially struggled with runners in scoring position, batting .250 -- the fifth-worst mark in the American League. The main offenders: Lindor (.205), Jake Bauers (.218), Jose Ramirez (.259). Perhaps recent addition Yaisel Puig, who has a .462 average with runners in scoring position, will provide relief.

HOUSTON ASTROS (80-46, 1st AL WEST)

-7.8 BsR: Fangraphs base running rating

Houston can hit (.836 OPS is best in the majors), and the Astros can pitch (.222 batting average against is the lowest in MLB). But Houston sometimes struggles on the bases. Fangraphs ranks the Astros as the fourth-worst base-running team (-7.8 BsR). This is an all-encompassing base-running figure that comprises success on the bases (i.e. stolen bases, gaining an extra base on a hit) and combines it into one comprehensive stat. Their 2019 continues a three-year decline on the base paths -- Houston posted a -7.0 figure a year ago. It is a substantial dip from their championship season of 2017 (-0.4). What does base running matter when a club can hit and pitch like the Astros can? In October, the smallest things can make the difference between a champion and a what-might-have-been team.

ATLANTA BRAVES (74-52, 1st NL EAST)

22: Blown saves

Unwilling to spend big bucks for a high-dollar closer over the winter, the Braves' bullpen has struggled in the ninth inning. A.J. Minter and Arodys Vizcaino were swept out of the closer role because of injuries; Luke Jackson, Josh Tomlin and Touki Toussaint all failed. As a result, the Braves' bullpen has seen its ERA rise by over a half a run over last season. Atlanta has the third-most blown saves in the NL. The Braves have a mostly young, unproven rotation, so an unreliable bullpen is a huge detriment.  To its credit, Atlanta aimed to address its bullpen woes at the trade deadline, adding Shane Greene and Mark Melancon, after bringing Anthony Swarzak and Jerry Blevins aboard earlier in the year.

LA DODGERS (82-44, 1st NL WEST)

396: Innings worked by relievers

The Dodgers' bullpen has worked the second-fewest innings of any relief group in the National League, so it's well rested. Part of that is a function of the success of starters Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-jin Ryu and Walker Buehler. Another reason? LA doesn't want to test its late-game options because the bullpen is not very good. Kenley Jansen has shown wear and tear from a substantial workload over the past five years. Injuries have slowed Ross Stripling and Scott Alexander, further limiting manager Dave Roberts' options. Joe Kelly has underwhelmed (4.54 ERA, -0.6 WAR) after signing a $25 million contract last winter. In an era in which having a strong bullpen is paramount, LA may be forced to rely on its starters in the playoffs. Ryu and Kershaw posted a combined 7.53 World Series ERA last year. Uh-oh.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS, 68-56, 2nd NL EAST

6.00 Bullpen ERA

The Nationals' bullpen ERA is second worst in the majors, ahead of only the lowly Orioles' mark (6.17). To offset those bullpen woes, Washington relies heavily on its star-studded starting staff that includes Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, who have performed up to expectations. The trio owns a 3.22 ERA and averages 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Only Houston starters Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke have been better as a group. However, Scherzer has twice gone to the disabled list in the second half, leaving Strasburg and Corbin to carry the load in his absence. Manager Dave Martinez may have no choice but to ride his starters well into October.