Latest injury could be the final nail in Braves' postseason coffin

The Atlanta Braves' flickering playoff hopes were dealt a significant blow on Wednesday.

The Braves announced that pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a fractured right elbow. Mark Bowman from MLB.com reported that Schwellenbach had felt sore after pitching against the Phillies on Saturday, leading to the discovery that he has a small fracture in his elbow. Schwellenbach will be shut down for four weeks before throwing again, with the hope that he can return in September.

Schwellenbach had built off of an impressive rookie season in 2025. He had posted a 3.09 ERA and a 0.967 WHiP in his 110.2 innings, striking out 108 batters with 18 walks. Schwellenbach had begun to emerge as a potential ace for the Braves rotation.

The Braves rotation has been hammered by injuries this season. Chris Sale was recently transferred to the 60-day IL due to a fractured rib; he is expected to be sidelined until late August at the minimum. Reynaldo Lopez underwent shoulder surgery on April 8 and might return in September. AJ Smith-Shawver has a torn UCL and will miss the rest of the season as well as at least part of 2026. Staff ace Spencer Strider has been inconsistent since returning from elbow surgery, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 1.143 WHiP over his 49 innings.

The Braves had already faced an uphill battle to reach the postseason. Atlanta entered Wednesday with a 38-46 record, 11.5 games back in the NL East and 7.5 games out of a playoff berth. The Braves lineup has struggled, ranking 22nd in the majors with a .697 OPS, not nearly enough to overcome a decimated rotation.

Despite their record, the Braves are not expected to be sellers at the July 31 trade deadline. The Braves have come back from a mediocre showing over the first four months, catching fire which led to an improbable playoff push. The Braves are also five games under their projected record, tied with the Yankees and White Sox for the biggest negative discrepancy. 

However, that 2022 team had a healthy rotation and a productive lineup. The 2025 Braves do not. History repeating itself, given these circumstances, is unlikely at best. Losing Schwellenbach for at least the next two-and-a-half months is the death knell for the season.