Latest on MLB Expansion and Oakland

With the A's groundbreaking in Las Vegas and the MLB All Star Game both occurring in the past couple of weeks, Rob Manfred has been available for questions recently, and one topic he has been asked about a few times now is expansion.

Back in June, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that Manfred was so irritated by the negotiations with then-mayor Sheng Thao that "he will never allow a team in Oakland," according to an official.

During the All Star festivities, Slusser reported that Manfred is keeping all options on the table when it comes to expansion, saying, "I don't have any problem with any government official in Oakland," though he seemed to mean current government official, with Thao out.

On Sunday, Bob Nightengale put in his notes column that "Major League Baseball believes the strongest two expansion markets remain Salt Lake City, Utah, and Nashville, with no plans to put an expansion franchise back into Oakland."

Back in September of 2023, Nightengale also wrote, "Although the Oakland A’s will be moving to Las Vegas, the city may not be without a team very long. High-ranking executives say that if Oakland officials and an ownership group secure a site to build a new ballpark, they will join Nashville, Tennessee, as the top two expansion sites in the next five years."

Is Oakland Officially Out?

So what does this all mean? Well, it may not mean much as of right now since the reports keep on changing from week to week. That is likely by design. Manfred has not committed to expansion just yet, and has long said that the league wouldn't expand before the A's and Rays ballpark situations were handled.

While there has been progress on both fronts, the A's have yet to announce where about $1 billion of the construction costs are coming from for the Vegas ballpark, and the Rays are in the process of being sold, which will put them back at square one for their own ballpark.

All that is to say that with Manfred announcing that he will step down as MLB commissioner in 2029, that may be long enough for either a new commissioner to be in place before expansion is even announced, or for the landscape to change and Oakland, or a number of other cities, vaulting into the mix for a brand new team.

There are also some in Sacramento that firmly believe that the state capitol will be getting a team, due to the city's hosting of the A's while they await their ballpark in Las Vegas, though that appears to be more of a personal opinion than some hidden agreement.

Honestly, it's tough to see Manfred being the one that would grant Oakland an expansion team, or even allow the A's back into the market if things fell apart in Vegas. In doing so, he'd be admitting that pulling the franchise out was a mistake on some level, and that would not only undermine his own legacy, but also Baseball in general.

Part of the reason the A's are leaving is because MLB wants teams to get public financing for their ballparks. That's huge for owners. If a municipality doesn't bend to the League's will, then the A's will be used as an example that MLB will just take the team away. They need the A's to leave to strike that fear in other cities. They also need to keep baseball away for at least little while for the same reason.

The only way that could change, and this is speculation, would be if Vegas falls apart and the League finally forces Fisher to sell. Of course, MLB would try to steer that sale to a Vegas-based group, but if a Bay Area billionaire came in and offered way more than the franchise valuation--something like $2.5-3 billion--then the owners would certainly have to consider the proposition.

For the Bay Area person, that would still likely be cheaper than an expansion fee, and it comes with branding already built in and a fan base that would go absolutely nuts. For the owners, that would boost the valuations of their own clubs, putting money in their pockets.

It would also presumably mean that the A's could be taken off of revenue sharing, which would mean more money could be spread around to other clubs on a year-to-year basis. Of course, the San Francisco Giants have to be pleased that the A's are gone, and may fight a return.

That may be Oakland's best chance at getting baseball back any time soon, but it also may be a pipe dream.