Sep 23, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson (41) runs to first after hitting an RBI single against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Latest Projections Are Too Harsh on Cardinals Despite Teardown

Originally posted on St. Louis Cardinals on SI
By Curt Bishop | Last updated Feb 11, 2026 7:00 PM ET

The 2026 season is almost here. The St. Louis Cardinals initiated a complete teardown this offseason, trading away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan. The focus is clearly on the future as they begin the youth movement.

As a result of their teardown, the Cardinals aren't projected to do too well in 2026 in terms of the standings. PECOTA projects that they'll win just 66 games and finish in last place in the National League Central.

However, those projections could be a little bit harsh, even with everything that has gone on this offseason in St. Louis.

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Preseason projections still not kind to Cardinals

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The projections obviously aren't kind to the Cardinals, but there are a couple of reasons that they might be a little bit harsh.

The Young Core

Despite the losses of Gray, Donovan, Arenado and Contreras, there are still reasons to be excited. The Cardinals got a lot of contributions last year from Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore and Victor Scott II. All of those players will be back this year.

In addition, top prospect JJ Wetherholt is ready and will likely break camp with the big-league club. If he is as good as advertised, then the Cardinals could receive an unexpected offensive boost. He could potentially be the next superstar they develop.

Couple that with the rest of the young core, and the Cardinals could potentially surprise some people this season. That's not to say they're a contender, but they may not be as bad as expected.

The Pitching Additions

The Cardinals have also made some key additions on the pitching side. In December, they signed right-hander Dustin May to a one-year, $12.5 million contract. That should boost their starting rotation after the loss of Gray.

In January, Ryne Stanek was signed to a one-year pact to bolster the bullpen. After the trades of Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz, it made sense for the Cardinals to add to their relief corps. Stanek is a high-leverage option that could be vital towards the end of games.

There are still some solid veterans on the staff, and they could make the Cardinals better in 2026. If they fall out of contention though, they can simply trade them.

This article first appeared on St. Louis Cardinals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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