Listen to your Elder, bet Braves on the runline

The NBA and NHL playoffs might be commanding most of the attention this week, but we've got a pair of MLB bets we love today. 

We start with the Atlanta Braves on the runline against the Miami Marlins. In case you haven't watched the first two games of this series, Atlanta hasn't just beaten Miami, they've spanked them. And we don't see that changing on Wednesday night. The Braves are the best team in the NL East, and Miami is far from it. 

You might think we're crazy to tell you to put money on the Braves on the runline with reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara starting for the Marlins, but Alcantara got rocked the last time he faced an NL East team and has an ERA north of five so far this season. 

With Miami struggling to score runs once again (fewest runs in the NL) and Atlanta not struggling to score (third most in the National League), this bet probably hits even if the Braves manage to score just three runs. That's how bad the Marlins offense has been. And considering Braves starter Bryce Elder hasn't allowed a run in three of his first four starts, we're even less confident the Marlins get much going offensively. 

It might take Atlanta till the sixth or seventh inning to pull away by multiple runs, but we love the Braves on the runline.  

Atlanta Braves (-1.5, +140 odds via DraftKings)

As for our second MLB play, take the Blue Jays by multiple runs over the atrocious Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have yet to win a series, and we'd be surprised if they avoid the sweep on Wednesday. 

Chicago's bullpen has been a dumpster fire (third worst in MLB) and Michael Kopech hasn't been all that much better. Kopech struggled in his last start against Tampa Bay (5 IP, 5 R, 6 H, 4 BB) and has allowed five or more runs in two of his first four starts. Even worse for Kopech, he's facing the Jays at the worst possible time. Toronto put up seven runs in Tuesday's win and has scored five or more runs in three straight games. And did we mention Toronto starter Yusei Kikuchi is 3-0 and has allowed just one run in three of his first four starts?  

These two teams are trending in different directions, so do yourself a favor and go with the team that is playing well, not the team who is hoping to dig themselves out of a hole. You'll thank us later.

Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5, +110 odds via FanDuel)

Outlier Trends of the Day

Giannis Antetokounmpo — Three-pointers
Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to exceed 0.5 three-pointers made in seven of his last eight games against top-10 defenses.

Giannis Antetokounmpo under 0.5 three-pointers (-120 odds via BetMGM)

Nathan MacKinnon — Points
Nathan MacKinnon has failed to exceed 1.5 points in 11 of his last 14 games against opponents with a winning record.

Nathan MacKinnon under 1.5 points (+105 odds via DraftKings)

In the news ...

Rays' season-opening home winning streak ends at 14 — It's been an unprecedented start for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays jumped to a 13-0 start to begin the year. Tampa Bay also became the first team in the modern era to win 14 consecutive games at home to begin a season. Despite Tuesday's 5-0 loss to Houston, Tampa Bay is an MLB-best 20-4 and +750 to win the World Series. 

Nuggets, Suns advance to Western Conference semis — Both the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns advanced to the Western Conference semifinals on Wednesday after closing out their first-round series in just five games. Denver held off Minnesota, 112-109, while Phoenix topped the L.A. Clippers, 136-130. Both teams will now face each other in the Western Conference semifinals in a 1 vs. 4 matchup. The Nuggets are currently +340 to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals and +950 to win the NBA Finals while the Suns are favored to win the West at +160 and +400 to win the NBA Finals. 

Stars, Islanders and Oilers all take 3-2 series leads — The Dallas Stars, New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers all took 3-2 series leads in their first-round playoff series with wins in Game 5 on Wednesday. Dallas shutout Minnesota, 4-0, New York held off Carolina, 3-2, and Edmonton defeated Los Angeles, 6-3.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Jared Shlensky