Looking at the Blue Jays’ current 2026 draft situation

The Toronto Blue Jays had a great draft in 2025.

Thanks to finishing with a 74-88 record the season before, the Jays picked eighth overall in the 2025 draft, selecting high school bat JoJo Parker. The left-handed hitter had one of the best hit tools in the draft and has above-average power, even though he may move off shortstop in the future.

The Jays surrendered their second-round pick after signing Anthony Santander last off-season, but that didn’t matter at all. They took Jake Cook with their third-round pick, an incredibly athletic outfielder who has future lead-off hitter written all over him. After Cook, they selected Micah Bucknam with their fourth-rounder, the second time they’ve selected the New Zealand product.

A Canadian high schooler, Tim Piasentin, was selected in the fifth round, as the Jays turned their attention to college players for the next five picks, including two-way play Austin Smith. As is the case with every draft, the Jays figured out they still had some money left over, then proceeded to draft two players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 250 draft list, Jared Spencer in the 11th round and Blaine Bullard in the 12th round. After more collegiate players were drafted, the Jays capped it off with high school outfielder Jordan Rich.

It was the third consecutive draft where you can’t point to it and say it was very good. I’d even say it was the fourth consecutive draft, as there’ll be a handful of players from the 2022 draft who play in the big leagues, including Mason Fluharty.

That said, it’s going to be hard for the Blue Jays to replicate that success in 2026. The Blue Jays went over the Competitive Balance Tax last season, which has two ramifications for where they’ll pick.

The first is that since they were more than $40 million over the $241 million luxury tax payroll, their first-rounder will drop back 10 spots. They finished second-best, meaning that the Blue Jays’ first-round pick will be 39th overall.

On Wednesday, the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease. Shortly after the off-season began, the right-handed pitcher declined his qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres, meaning the loss of more draft picks for the Blue Jays. Because they’re taxpayers, the Jays will lose their second-round and fifth-round draft picks.

If the Blue Jays end up signing Kyle Tucker or Edwin Díaz, or any other free agent that declined a qualifying offer (not including Bo Bichette), the Jays would then also lose their third and sixth-round picks.

In the case that the Blue Jays sign Tucker, it likely means that Bichette will sign elsewhere. There’s a bit of ambiguity in how MLB.com’s glossary for Qualifying Offers words what would happen in that scenario, noting that a team “loses its second and fifth-highest picks”, but after research and asking around, it seems like the compensation pick for Bichette after the fourth round is unaffected, despite it being the Jays’ fifth-highest pick. That means they’d just lose their second, third, fifth, and sixth round picks. 

If the Jays were able to re-sign Bichette instead of Tucker, but sign Díaz as well, they would not receive a pick after the fourth round while losing those four aforementioned picks.

What we know for sure is that the Blue Jays will pick 39th overall and won’t have their second or fifth round picks. It could remain that way if the Jays re-sign Bichette and add no one else with a declined qualifying, or the Jays could lose their third and sixth as well, while adding a pick after the fourth round.

We’ll see how everything plays out!