Looking back at Cubs’ biggest surprise of 2025

The most thrilling development of the season was Pete Crow-Armstrong’s transformation into an MVP-caliber player, while the bullpen shocked with their sheer skill on a tight budget. The young center fielder was a speed threat and defensive virtuoso going into 2025, but nobody had anticipated the offensive explosion that ensued.

Crow-Armstrong began 2025 with a career batting line of just.228/.282/.370 and 10 home runs in 136 games. Before being called up, this player had only 11 home runs in 60 games at Triple-A. However, by the middle of the season, he had undergone an almost fanciful transformation. Crow-Armstrong discovered raw power he had never shown before by working with stance changes, such as going farther into the batter’s box and repositioning his front legs to increase his sightlines.

He was the best power-speed threat the Cubs had ever had by the All-Star break. Before the break, he had amassed 23 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He ranked fourth in the National League in home runs and seventh in slugging percentage. He actually led the National League in WAR at the half, surpassing Juan Soto and even Shohei Ohtani, proving the validity of his MVP candidacy.

Crow-Armstrong was further elevated by his defensive skills in addition to his offensive stats. In the Defensive Runs range component, he was the top center fielder. 89 of 103 balls hit deepest to center field were saved and caught, which is the highest percentage in baseball for deep center-field balls—eight more than anticipated. Among position players, his 1.7 Defensive WAR was almost three times higher than that of his closest peers. A team in dire need of a homegrown superstar was energized by the player profile created by the combination of emerging power, elite speed, outstanding defense, and youthful energy.

The Bullpen Nobody Believed In

When the Cubs put together their relief corps in the offseason, they made a conspicuous decision that raised rapt attention not only in the baseball fraternity. Instead of going all out for the elite closers like Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, or Robert Suarez, a trio that demands a combined $55 million in average annual value, the Cubs took a low-cost, high-risk portfolio route. They signed Brad Keller on a minor league contract, got Drew Pomeranz after he hadn’t pitched since 2021, and counted on Daniel Palencia, a pre-arbitration reliever who was not expected to be the team’s closer.

The world of betting scoffed. The strategy was questioned by baseball analysts. However, the Cubs’ bullpen finished the season with a 3.78 ERA, which was 11th in baseball — a noteworthy accomplishment given the caliber of arms used. Examining who was actually throwing innings made that impressive statistic even more striking. On a $1.5 million minor-league contract, Keller pitched 69.2 innings with a 2.07 ERA. Pomeranz, the forgotten man making a comeback, earned $1.3 million with a 2.17 ERA in 49.2 innings. Caleb Thielbar contributed with a 2.64 ERA after re-signing on a modest contract.

But Palencia was the source of the true revelation. The plan completely changed when Porter Hodge, the Cubs’ highly anticipated rookie closer from 2024 with a stellar 1.88 ERA, took over the ninth inning. It was supposed to be a depth piece. Hodge missed time due to an oblique injury and struggled to an ugly 6.27 ERA, which ultimately made him useless by the end of the season. Palencia, on the other hand, took advantage of the situation and, despite an ugly 1-6 record that concealed his underlying effectiveness, posted a 2.91 ERA with 22 saves in 25 opportunities. He became the unlikely pillar of Chicago’s postseason hopes, and his 3.08 FIP more accurately represented his actual worth.

The Future and the Reality of the Postseason

The Cubs’ 2025 campaign exemplified the conflict between unexpected greatness and postseason constraints. They won their division for the first time since 2019 and earned a Wild Card berth with a 92-70 finish. The team carried sincere hopes of winning the World Series into October after recording their best record since 2016.

But the postseason wasn’t as forgiving. The Cubs lost to the Milwaukee Brewers in a close five-game series, despite having a 4-4 record in both the Wild Card Series and the NLDS. Injuries limited Kyle Tucker’s availability and impact in the final stretch, but he did deliver in flashes, including strong playoff moments. Crow-Armstrong’s decline in the second half, meanwhile, was a reflection of a wider September swoon that raised concerns about mental exhaustion and sustainability.

Unquestionably, though, the 2025 Cubs had laid an unexpected foundation. The bullpen’s economical success upended preconceived notions in the industry regarding relief pitcher construction. Even though Crow-Armstrong didn’t quite make it to the 30-30-20 (Defensive Runs Saved) club that only Brent Rooker had in baseball’s modern era, his rise indicated an emerging superstar.

Despite falling short of ultimate goals, the season exceeded initial expectations thanks to these surprises, one of which humbled the game’s financial orthodoxy and the other of which demonstrated organic player development. 2025 served as a guide and a reminder that baseball’s biggest surprises frequently originate from the most unlikely places for a team looking for its next championship window.