Looking for a match in a Jonathan India trade

The Reds enjoyed a youth movement in 2023 as exciting youngsters like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz helped to push the club into unexpected contention for much of the season, though they ultimately fell short of playoffs with an 82-80 record. 

The aforementioned names alongside other youngsters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have created something of an infield logjam for the club, however. The club’s positional mix has gotten crowded enough that the Reds do not expect to have sufficient at-bats available to allow franchise icon Joey Votto to finish his career in Cincinnati.

The excess of infield options makes it a no-brainer for the Reds to at least consider dealing from that surplus, and the club seemingly did at least listen on offers for 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, who started the season strong with a .271/.355/.439 slash line through 73 games but battled plantar fasciitis throughout the second half, with a slash line of just .201/.312/.356 in 205 trips to the plate the rest of the way. With India unlikely to move off second base and the Reds reportedly interested in acquiring additional infield talent, it’s fairly reasonable to expect India to once again be available this offseason, particularly given the club’s dire need for a reliable starting pitcher to pair with Hunter Greene at the front of their rotation.

While it might seem prudent to hold onto India in hopes that a full, healthy campaign from the 26-year-old in 2024 could increase his trade value, the sparse free agent class in terms of middle infield options could make India a more valuable commodity than he might otherwise seem to be. The likes of Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield and Amed Rosario headline the current class of free agents up the middle, all of whom India outperformed in 2023 even while battling injuries. What’s more, he could wind up being more financially affordable than those lesser options, as he’s set to make his first trip through arbitration this offseason with an affordable price tag of just $3.7M projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Adding three years of cost-controlled production from India certainly appears to be an attractive option when compared to a pricier one-year flier on Anderson or a commitment to Merrifield’s age-35 campaign after three consecutive below-average seasons offensively.

So, which teams could be a fit for the Reds to partner up with on a deal? As previously mentioned, India seems to be more or less locked into his role as a regular second baseman, meaning teams with a clear plan at the keystone for 2024 make little sense. That likely eliminates the Astros, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, A’s, Marlins, Rockies, Mets, Angels and Braves as potential suitors, as each of those clubs have either a clearly established second baseman or a surplus of potential infield options of their own. Meanwhile, the Royals and Pirates are unlikely to give up long-term pitching assets to acquire a player who could wind up blocking options within their own systems. That still leaves nine clubs that could feasibly be interested in India’s services this offseason, however. A look at how they match up.

Best Fits:

• Dodgers: Among the clear best fits for India is the Dodgers, who were forced to move superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the infield dirt for much of the 2023 season. While he pulled off a multi-positional role with aplomb, a middle infield acquisition that could allow Betts to return to right field while alleviating pressure on an infield mix of Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Miguel Vargas would make a lot of sense for L.A. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have plenty of interesting pitching prospects and young arms that could entice the Reds, such as Nick Frasso, Landon Knack and Gavin Stone.
• Mariners: Seattle is another clear fit for India’s services. The Reds and Mariners have gotten together on several deals in recent years, with Cincinnati sending the likes of Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker out west while recouping key prospects such as Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson who helped to accelerate the club’s rebuilding process. A cut-and-dry buy-sell trade doesn’t make sense here anymore with both sides hoping to contend in 2023, but the Mariners have interesting young arms like Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock who the Reds would surely be interested in acquiring. Meanwhile, second base was a problem for the Mariners in 2023, and while the addition of Josh Rojas should help shore up the position, it’s easy to see how India could make sense for the club as a potential centerpiece of a deal should they decide to part with one of their young arms.
• White Sox: Though not the obvious contenders that the other teams in this tier are, the White Sox are perhaps most desperate for middle infield help of any club with utility players Lenyn Sosa and Romy Gonzalez projected as their starting double-play duo in 2024. They also boast one of the most enticing pitching trade chips on the market this offseason in right-hander Dylan Cease, who is controllable for the next two seasons and boasts a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the last three seasons with a 30% strikeout rate. While a one-for-one swap of the two players seems implausible given Cease’s front-of-the-rotation potential, India could be an intriguing piece for the sides to build a larger return package around given Chicago’s needs up the middle.

Next Tier Down:

• Blue Jays: Toronto recently lost both Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield to free agency, creating major holes around the team’s infield. With the club firmly in the midst of its window for contention, a deal for three years of India would help solidify second base while also allowing the club to focus their financial efforts on either re-signing Chapman or pursuing a left-handed outfield bat like Cody Bellinger. That being said, the Jays have some interesting young infielders such as Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement who they may be interested in giving runway to in 2024, and are in need of pitching depth of their own this offseason. While it’s conceivable that the Reds could have interest in Alek Manoah as a potential change-of-scenery candidate, it’s hard to pinpoint what sort of value Manoah would have in trade this offseason on the heels of an incredible 2022 campaign and a disastrous 2023.
• Brewers: The Brewers are in a precarious spot this offseason, with the club likely to entertain trade offers both on shortstop Willy Adames in addition to righties Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser. Burnes, of course, would be an incredible addition to the rotation-needy Reds, while the possible departure of Adames would create a clear need for the club up the middle that could be filled by shifting Brice Turang to shortstop and acquiring India to play second base. While the fit between the two clubs is certainly a sensible one on paper, it seems unlikely that the division rivals would get together on a trade of this sort of magnitude barring the Brewers settling on a full-blown rebuild, at which point acquiring a player already into his arbitration years like India makes little sense.
• Tigers: While Detroit may appear to be something of an unusual fit for India’s services, the club mustered a second place finish in the AL Central last season, suggesting it could be building toward more success in the coming years. While the Tigers are unlikely to be favorites for the AL Central crown in 2024, India’s three seasons of team control make him a solid fit as a clear upgrade over Zack McKinstry at second base. What’s more, the Tigers have a bevy of interesting young arms from which to deal, from the type of controllable, quality arms that would require a larger package like Tarik Skubal to potentially cheaper options like Matt Manning and perhaps even Alex Faedo.

Longer Shots:

• Red Sox: The Red Sox have a clear need at second base for the 2024 season, and India could certainly make sense to help plug that hole. Unfortunately for Boston, however, the Reds are unlikely to be interested in dealing for a player from the club’s outfield surplus like Alex Verdugo, and the Red Sox are in need of pitching help themselves this offseason. It’s not impossible to imagine a deal coming together centered around mid-rotation veteran Nick Pivetta or a younger arm like Josh Winckoski, but a hypothetical deal is further complicated by the impending arrival of Marcelo Mayer, who alongside Trevor Story would likely kick India over to DH early in his tenure with Boston, likely hampering his value to the Red Sox.
• Giants: The Giants have Thairo Estrada as a clearly capable regular at second base already, immediately complicating the fit between the two sides. That being said, San Francisco is in clear need of offense, and adding a young, reliable second baseman like India to the club’s infield mix could allow Estrada to take on a multi-positional role. After all, he has experience at shortstop, third base and both outfield corners in addition to the keystone. It’s hard to imagine the Giants giving up enough near-term pitching to entice the Reds to make a deal, however, given their own need for arms this offseason.
• Nationals: The Nationals are in the midst of a protracted rebuild, immediately making them something of a dubious fit for a win-now player in his prime such as India. That being said, with three seasons of team control India would likely still be under control when Washington is ready to contend. The club has utilized Luis Garcia at second base in recent years, though India would be an upgrade over Garcia, who has experience at shortstop and could potentially be moved elsewhere on the infield. Washington also has a handful of young arms who could be of interest to the Reds, such as Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray, though it’s unclear if the Nationals would have an appetite for dealing a way a controllable arm at this stage in their rebuild.