Mets insider cautions against 'massive mistake' this offseason

As DiComo notes, it can be incredibly difficult to predict whether a Japanese player's skillset will translate to MLB. One key indicator that teams often look to is their success against velocity, which is a concerning metric for Murakami in particular; he struck out over 40% of the time against fastballs 93 mph and higher last season in NPB.

DiComo goes on to reference The Athletic's contract projections to point out that Murakami is slated to make more overall than Alonso would, despite Alonso likely commanding a higher AAV. They predict Murakami to get somewhere around six years and $160 million, while it is unlikely Alonso could land a deal of that length.

"I'm not sure how you justify, if you're the Mets, stepping into those waters which could be, if this guy's not any good or he's just okay, a massive mistake because you do know what Pete Alonso is."

Murakami and Alonso profile quite similar, as lower-average, high home run power bats with an average to below average glove at first base. For Murakami, who is much younger (25) and untested at the major league level, the argument would be for his upside. But Alonso, who consistently delivers 35 home runs and 100-plus RBIs, is a proven commodity with a long history of greatness in the New York market.

DiComo focused his analysis on Murakami in discussing both Japanese infielders. Okamoto, while older (29) with less potential for growth, could be a better fit for the Mets. Okamoto was better against velocity last year, striking out just 8.8% of the time against 93 mph or higher. He also profiles as a better defender and could realistically play third base if needed before transitioning into a full-time first baseman.

That said, Okamoto's success is no guarantee either and taking the risk of losing your franchise home run leader for a player that could fall flat is, as DiComo put it, "very hard to stomach."