Mets’ Newcomer Duo Projected to Clear 20 Homers Each

A Lineup That Looked Stronger Than It Felt

Last year’s Mets offense was not flashy in a top-to-bottom sense, but it was relentless. They punished mistakes. They stacked solid at-bats. And when pitchers slipped, the ball often landed several rows deep.

That is why the losses sting. Alonso alone accounted for a huge portion of the lineup’s identity, and Nimmo and McNeil gave the Mets balance that went beyond home runs.

Strip that away, and the fear is not irrational. Power is harder to replace than it looks, especially when you are trying to stay competitive rather than reset.

What the Mets Actually Added

It would be unfair to say the Mets did nothing. Marcus Semien came over in the Nimmo trade, bringing durability, professionalism, and a track record of impact. Jorge Polanco arrived on a two-year deal, with the hope that his bat could help soften the blow at first base.

On paper, neither player screams Alonso-level thunder. But projection systems do not deal in nostalgia. They deal in trends, aging curves, and underlying performance.

FanGraphs still sees real power here.

Semien’s 2026 projection sits at 22 home runs over 150 games, along with a .241 average, .314 on-base percentage, and 3.1 WAR. For a player whose home run total dipped to 15 last year after four straight seasons over 20, that projection matters. It suggests the decline may not be permanent, just uneven.

Polanco’s projection is even more intriguing. FanGraphs pegs him for 20 homers in only 110 games, paired with a .438 slugging percentage. He hit 26 home runs last season with Seattle, and the model clearly believes that power is real. If his health allows him to push past that games-played estimate, the ceiling rises quickly.

Power by Committee, Not Replacement

No one in the Mets front office is pretending Semien or Polanco replaces Alonso one-for-one. That is not how this lineup is being built. The idea, whether fans like it or not, appears to be redistribution.

Twenty homers here. Twenty there. Less reliance on one swing, more spread across the order. It is not as comforting as penciling in Alonso for 40, but it can still work if the surrounding pieces do their jobs.

The Mets lineup still needs work. That part is undeniable. But it matters that projection models still believe in these additions, especially after such visible losses.

Sometimes the numbers offer a calmer read than the noise. Right now, they are telling the Mets that the power is bruised, not broken.