Happy Monday! Let’s celebrate by betting on two volatile arms and quietly profitable over teams with a May 19th showdown between the Marlins and the Cubs. This game offers not one but three edges on total markets to exploit.
With Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera toeing the rubber, our model found team total overs for both sides and the full game total as plus-ROI betting targets.
The loanDepot park is generous for runs thanks to warmer spring temperatures, and the poor bullpen play is the cherry on top for today’s Preview, Prediction, and Odds. Let’s turn those “Case of the Mondays” into a profitable betting card.
Team | Spread | Total Runs | Money Line |
+1.5 (-110) | Over 8.5 (-124) | +146 | |
-1.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (+102) | -174 |
Odds Courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
Team Stats | ||
3.98 | Runs/G | 5.74 |
.248 | BA | .254 |
.312 | OBP | .327 |
.385 | SLG | .441 |
.697 | OPS | .768 |
42 | HR | 65 |
39 | SB | 59 |
5.34 | ERA | 3.93 |
1.48 | WHIP | 1.29 |
8 | K/9 | 8.1 |
.986 | Fielding Percentage | .986 |
9 | Saves | 15 |
Edward Cabrera | Player Stats | Ben Brown |
0-1 | W/L | 3-3 |
5.52 | ERA | 4 |
29.1 | IP | 41.2 |
1.53 | WHIP | 1.56 |
26 | K | 50 |
13 | BB | 16 |
Each team’s current form screams over. Add this to a combined over record of 54-36 (60%) for both teams, and it makes even more sense. Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera tout a 5.13 ERA average with a subpar strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), creating more on-base opportunities for batters. Each pitcher uses their fastball over 50%, and both lineups know how to attack that particular pitch.
The weather shows an 85-degree game-time temperature with humidity near 70%. This weather combo can be a magical potion for exit velocity. Our model suggests a 9.205 run line well above the current 8.5 offering. We smash the over when two bottom-third bullpens collide, and the starters have such a high walk rate.
Miami has been sneaky efficient at clearing low team totals, hitting the over on their team line in 62% of games. Ignore their anemic season record and focus on any coinflip-type bet with a six or higher as the first number. The Marlin’s south-paw sluggers (Stowers, Sanchez) get a juicy match-up against Brown, who allows a .278 BAA with a 4.75 ERA. The Cubs’ cakewalk bullpen posts a 1.37 WHIP and has blown multiple leads in May. Swordfish, you are cleared for offensive takeoff.
The Cubs are in the top 10 in home runs and the top squad for stolen bases. It is not fun being a pitcher facing a dual-threat team that can punish the most minor mistake. Cabrera has walked 13 batters in 29.1 IP for a 1.53 WHIP and failed to complete six innings in four of his six starts.
The Cubs averaged 5.55 runs over their last ten games. Our model has them at 5.6 today, a whopping 1.1 over what the books serve currently. The Marlins’ relievers have been worse than the starters, allowing .289 BAA since May 1st and ranking 28th in bullpen ERA. The Cubs should continue their winning ways by attacking the Miami pitching staff.
Betting Stats | ||
4-6 | W/L 10 | 6-4 |
23-22 | ATS | 25-22 |
27-18 | O/U | 27-18 |
Take the value in these three bets and hope for a night of offensive fireworks. Our simulations favor the Cubs winning outright with a projected 5.6 – 4.5 final score. The Cubs have the edge in pitching form and dual-threat offense, while the Miami Marlins are limited to bullpen meltdowns and poor defensive metrics. This game’s most frequent simulation cluster outcome was Cubs 6, Marlins 4. Let’s see those bats light up and bet it as such.
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New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone responded Sunday, one day after Alex Rodriguez suggested his team lacks discipline and accountability. On FOX’s MLB pregame show Saturday, Rodriguez questioned the “accountability” of the Yankees after Boone did not pull Jazz Chisholm from Saturday’s loss to Miami after the infielder made a brutal baserunning blunder. Rodriguez suggested that the Yankees do not face consequences for such mistakes, and that it has contributed to further errors. “If any one of us made a mistake, we would be sitting our butt right on the bench,” Rodriguez said. “I see mistake after mistake, and there’s no consequences.” Boone took issue with those remarks when asked about them on Sunday. He said he accepts that the Yankees will always face added scrutiny, but that he disagreed with the substance of Rodriguez’s remarks. “I would disagree a little bit with the accountability factor, but the reality is, we’re focused every day on being the best we can be,” Boone said, via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “That’s how we have to do it. But I understand when it doesn’t happen, or we don’t have the record that I think we should have, or certainly people think we should have — that comes with the territory.” Boone is known for keeping things positive publicly, even when things are going poorly for the Yankees. That has led to some criticism from fans, who feel that he goes too easy on his players when they are underperforming. The team’s recent stretch of mediocre play combined with a lack of consequences for errors like Chisholm’s have reinforced those critiques. The Yankees lost again on Sunday and were swept by the Marlins, dropping them to 60-51 on the season. Until the team starts consistently winning again, Boone is going to hear more comments like Rodriguez’s.
The New York Jets opted to cut Aaron Rodgers and sign Justin Fields to replace him during the offseason. This kind of commitment to Fields should bolster his confidence, but it could also place a lot of pressure on his shoulders. To this point, Fields has looked solid in training camp, aside from a scary toe injury that was quickly resolved in July. Justin Fried of the Jet Press recently reported that Fields' training camp may have reached a new low over the weekend as the young signal caller struggled. "Justin Fields put together his best practice of the summer to this point on Friday, completing his first 12 passes en route to an excellent all-around performance. The same can't be said about his showing on Saturday, however," Fried wrote. "Fields finished the day an abysmal 2-of-10 in the air, including a drop from rookie tight end Mason Taylor. "Some of his incompletions were catchable balls, but the Jets' passing game struggles on Saturday can largely be blamed on No. 7. Fields did flash his running ability with a 25-yard rushing score on the first play of red-zone drills, but the Jets would like to see more consistency in the air from the starting quarterback. Saturday's scrimmage was far from his best showing of the summer." Fields is a runner first at the NFL level, but his arm is nothing to scoff at. For most of training camp, his arm talent has been better than advertised, but during Saturday's scrimmage, it just wasn't there. A 2 for 10 performance is unacceptable for a $40 million quarterback who was signed to take over the team. The running game should open up the passing game for the Jets, which is going to need to be the case if Fields is going to struggle like this. However, it's just one day of camp. It's nothing to be too concerned about. Just because Fields lost this specific practice doesn't mean he's heading in the wrong direction as a whole.
The Indianapolis Colts had a scary moment on Sunday when a running back went down during an 11-on-11 team period. Per James Boyd of The Athletic, practice had to be stopped for 10 minutes while trainers attended to running back Salvon Ahmed, who suffered a "severe leg injury" after he was brought down via an illegal tackle by safety Trey Washington. "The injury occurred when Ahmed broke a long run during an 11-on-11 period," Boyd wrote. "He was tackled from behind by undrafted rookie safety Trey Washington, but when Washington grabbed Ahmed, who kept his legs churning, Washington used a hip-drop tackle to bring Ahmed down and landed on his lower right leg. Ahmed immediately grabbed his lower right leg and screamed in agony. "Steichen said the players in the developmental periods (essentially third-stringers and players lower than them on the depth chart) were instructed to tackle during 11-on-11. However, Steichen emphasized, Washington’s hip-drop tackle was obviously the wrong way to bring Ahmed down." Steichen said the coaching staff doesn't encourage hip-drop tackles, and claimed Washington is "down in the dumps" after his tackle led to Ahmed's injury. The unfortunate incident highlights how difficult it can be for NFL defenders to make a tackle. The league made the hip-drop tackle illegal to try and curb injuries, as offensive players thought it was a dirty hit. In Washington's case, the undrafted rookie free agent from Ole Miss wasn't trying to make a dirty hit but trying to make a football move in a competitive environment to keep his job. Before the injury, Ahmed was trying to make a case for the practice squad, where he spent time on during 2024.
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams may not deliver a high-flying offense in their first season together. The coach admitted the unit needs work after Sunday's practice. "Sloppier than we were hoping we would be at this point," Johnson said, via The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain. "We had a really good couple of practices over the last two, and then [it] took us a little while to get going and hear the pads clicking. I thought toward the end we picked it up and got pretty competitive here." Not all of the session was awful. During a red-zone drill, Williams faked to wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus and tossed a short pass to tight end Cole Kmet. He subsequently scored a touchdown. Several delay of game penalties, however, overshadowed the positive plays. "It's something that we're going to have to address for sure," Johnson said of the pre-snap issues. "It showed up more today than it has in practice. This was more like a real game, and if it continues like that, we're not going to win many games." The delay of game penalties are fixable, but they suggest Williams and company still aren't getting a grip on the new playbook. That shouldn't be a shock. The coach's system is complicated. Johnson's offense emphasizes pre-snap motion and precise route running. When executed correctly, it produces impressive results. In 2024, the Detroit Lions scored the league's most points (33.2) when the coach was their offensive coordinator. However, Detroit featured stars like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bears, meanwhile, went 5-12 last season. Williams has said he wants to become the first QB in Bears history to eclipse 4,000 passing yards in a season while also completing 70% of his passes. The 2024 No. 1 overall pick may want to lower expectations. The Bears offense still has to work out the bugs. It probably won't solve all of them before the team's season opener against the Minnesota Vikings on Sept. 8 at home.