Milwaukee Brewers 2024 Over/Under Regular Season Win Total

The Milwaukee Brewers will try and thrive this season with a new manager and some new players. We’re here to share our MLB odds series and make a Brewers over-under regular-season win total prediction for the 2024 season.

The Brewers finished with a 92-70 record last season. But things will look a lot different this season as Pat Murphy takes over behind the bench after Craig Counsel signed with the Chicago Cubs to become their new manager. There were some highlights last season. Let’s take a look.

Corbin Burnes went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA over 32 starts. Additionally, Freddy Peralta went 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA over 30 starts. Wade Miley went 9-4 with a 3.14 ERA over 23 starts. Likewise, there was some success in the bullpen as Devin Williams went 8-3 with a 1.53 ERA and 36 saves over 61 games.

The prospect to watch this season is center fielder Jackson Chourio, who is just 20 years old. Some have compared him to a young Robin Yount, and it will be interesting to see what he does this season.

The Brewers did not get many additions this offseason. However, they did gain Jake Bauers in a trade with the New York Mets. But they also lost Adrian Houser in that same trade. Also, they lost Rowdy Tellez, who left for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Brewers 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 76.5 Wins: -115

Under 76.5 Wins: -105

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Why The Brewers Will Win 76.5 Games

Burnes is one of the best starting pitchers on the planet. Therefore, the Brewers always have a chance to win when he is pitching. Burnes has an 11 strikeout/2.6 walk per nine-inning rate throughout his entire career. Overall, he is a pitcher that can make hitters look clueless. Peralta is not bad for a second pitcher. Amazingly, he has a fastball that increased in velocity last season. Peralta held hitters below the batting average of .200 for four straight seasons. These two starting pitchers are among the best in the game and tough to hit.

But the Brewers also have one of the best bullpens in the league, and it all starts with their elite closer. Ridiculously, Williams held hitters to a batting average of .129 and converted 90 percent of his save chances. In the grand scheme of things, the bullpen produced the best ERA in baseball at 3.40. His changeup is exceptional. But Williams is not the only arm that can trick hitters into missing. Additionally, left-handed Hoby Milner and right-handed Joel Payamps are the setup men of every manager’s dreams. Milner went 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA over 73 games, while Payamps went 7-5 with a 2.55 ERA over 69 games. Likewise, Trevor Megill had a solid season, going 1-o with a 3.63 ERA over 31 games.

Catcher William Contreras is a solid catcher and a solid hitter. While he hit .217, he also slugged 17 home runs, 78 RBIs, and 73 runs. Contreras also produced an on-base percentage of .367, a hard-hit rate of 48.7, and led the team in extra-base hits.

The Brewers will win 77 games because they still have two elite starters and the best bullpen in baseball. Additionally, Contreras can do enough on his own to determine the outcome of many games.

Why The Brewers Won’t Win 76.5 Games

Brandon Woodruff is back with the Brewers, but he will be out for most of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, this may hinder the entire team, as they will only have two reliable starters. Colin Rea is not an option. Last season, he went 6-6 with a 4.55 ERA over 22 starts and 26 games. Rea is inconsistent at best, and cannot be relied upon to be a pitcher this team can count on.

But their lineup is also awful. Losing Tellez hurts, and the rest of the team cannot do much. Willy Adames finished with a batting average of .217, 24 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 73 runs. Christian Yelich finished with a batting average of .278, 19 home runs, 76 RBIs, 106 runs, and 28 stolen bases. Andrew Monasterio hit only 5.5 percent barrels and had a bad 33.3 percent hard-hit rate.

The Brewers will not win 77 games because they have lost too many players. Likewise, it is going to be very difficult to adjust after losing a manager who led them for eight seasons.

Final Brewers Over/Under Win Total Prediction

Counsel had a big imprint on this team. Ultimately, we don’t know what Murphy will be like. But we do know that the Cubs will be better. Also, you cannot forget about the Cincinnati Reds. The St. Louis Cardinals will surely bounce back. Therefore, it is challenging to see the Brewers matching their success last season. While they won’t lose 100 games, the Brewers will take a step back. But this team still has talent. They are good enough to win 77 games. In fact, they probably finish 79-83.

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Final Brewers Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 76.5 Wins: -115