Minnesota Twins at the halfway point: Recap, playoff odds, superlatives

That was quite the rollercoaster first half for the Minnesota Twins, who are 39-42 after 81 games in 2025. Every team goes through ups and downs in every baseball season, but the Twins' ride thus far has been a bit bumpier than most.

The journey started slow, with an 0-4 record that turned into 7-15 and then 13-20. Fan frustration, stemming back to last season's collapse and an inactive offseason amid ownership uncertainty, was growing — and in many cases, seemingly turning into apathy. And then, on May 3, a clutch home run in Boston by scrap-heap pickup Kody Clemens sparked a 13-game winning streak, the second-longest in Twins history. Just like that, excitement returned — though the good times didn't last long.

In early June, the Twins were 34-27, the third-best record in the AL. Then Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews got hurt and the rest of the pitching staff completely unraveled. The Twins lost 15 of their next 18 games, allowing an absurd 144 runs during that span (with a -68 differential). They snapped out of it a bit with a pair of wins against Seattle over the last two days, but they still have plenty of work to do to (once again) turn their season around.

That quest begins with a road series this weekend against the Detroit Tigers, co-owners of the best record in MLB at 51-31. Taking two of three would be a big win as the Twins begin the second half of their season, but even avoiding a sweep might be considered a relatively satisfactory outcome. Before the next stretch of 81 games begins, let's take stock of the Twins' playoff odds and dish out some superlatives.

Twins' playoff odds

Fangraphs has the Twins' playoff odds at 28.5 percent. That's up almost seven points from just a couple days ago. The peak was 73.4 percent in late May. For whatever reason, Baseball Reference is much lower on Minnesota's chances, giving them just 8.5 percent odds to reach the postseason.

The expansion to three wild card teams is the main reason the Twins are still in the mix. Heading into Friday night, they're 11.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central but just 2.5 games back of the Mariners for the final wild card spot. A whopping eight teams in the AL have between 38 and 43 wins.

Twins first-half superlatives

Most valuable player: Byron Buxton

There's no debate here. Buxton has been simply incredible for the Twins and should be headed to his second career All-Star game in a few weeks (he was snubbed by fan voting to be a finalist for a starting spot). He's hit .279 with 17 home runs, a perfect 13 stolen bases on as many attempts, and an .899 OPS while also playing his typical elite defense in center field. Buxton played in 64 of the Twins' first 81 games and has already generated 3.0 bWAR. He's been healthy and he's been one of the best, most electrifying players in baseball.

Most valuable pitcher: Joe Ryan

Due to Lopez's lengthy absence, there's no debate here either, even though relievers Jhoan Duran and Louis Varland are both having excellent seasons. Ryan has been the clear ace of a starting rotation that has been hurt by injuries, inconsistency, and inexperience from its other members. He's pitched to a 2.86 ERA in 91.1 innings across 16 outings, striking out 104 batters to just 20 walks. Ryan has gone at least five innings in every single start this season, and he leads the Twins with 3.4 bWAR. He's among the league leaders in WPA, WHIP, and opponent batting average, among other metrics. He deserves to join Buxton in Atlanta next month.

Most pleasantly surprising performance: Kody Clemens

You could go in a few different directions here. Varland is a worthy candidate who has arguably been the Twins' most valuable bullpen arm in his first full season as a reliever. Harrison Bader has provided outstanding two-way production on a cheap one-year deal. But I think this has to be Clemens, who the Twins acquired from the Phillies for cash considerations in late April when he was set to be designated for assignment. The 29-year-old son of a legend had done very little in roughly 400 MLB plate appearances before joining the Twins, but something has clicked for him in Minnesota. Clemens has an .820 OPS in 136 PAs, with 15 of his 26 hits going for extra bases, including nine home runs. A couple of those homers have come in clutch spots, too. And it helps Clemens' value that he's appeared at five different positions defensively. He's been quite the surprising addition.

Most disappointing performance: Carlos Correa

How could this go to anyone else? Correa, the Twins' highest-paid player by a wide margin at over $37 million, has had the worst offensive season of his career up to this point. His OPS is just .691, and it was lower than that for the vast majority of the first half, sitting below .650 a little over a week ago. Correa hasn't walked much, he hasn't hit for power, and he's grounded into a team-high ten double plays. The good news is that he's still an elite defender at shortstop, and he's shown signs of turning it around at the plate lately. If the Twins are going to make the playoffs, they'll need a strong second half from Correa.

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