Pictured: Seth Lugo (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)

MLB best bets: Action Network expert picks for Thursday 4/4

Originally posted on Action Network | Last updated Apr 4, 2024 12:35 AM ET

There are only six games on Thursday's MLB slate, but that didn't stop our MLB betting experts from finding the best value on the board.

We've identified a pair of MLB best bets and have picks for Pirates vs. Nationals and White Sox vs. Royals.

So, continue reading as Thursday's MLB best bets and today's expert picks are below.

Pirates vs. Nationals

Thursday, April 4, 4:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Pirates Over 5.5 Runs (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Washington will hand the ball to right-hander Josiah Gray, who he should be a good fade candidate. Gray got drilled in his first start as he allowed seven runs on eight hits over four innings.

That poor start is just a continuation of his troubled career. Through four seasons, Gray is 17-26 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

His underlying metrics last year suggest that positive regression is unlikely coming to save Gray. In 2023, he ranked in the 34th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Chase%, K%, BB% and Barrel%.

Those struggles are likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team Gray possesses a 4.15 ERA against through three career starts. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's lineup has been humming to start the season. The Pirates rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Subsequently, they have scored six or more runs in five of their first six games.

Pick: Pirates Over 5.5 Runs

White Sox vs. Royals

Thursday, April 4, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLBN
Seth Lugo 5+ Strikeouts (DraftKings)

By John Feltman

The Royals turn to right-hander Seth Lugo after suffering a tough loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday evening. The weather is projected to be chilly after sun down, making this a great spot to fade miserable White Sox lineup.

Lugo generated a 33 CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs) in his first start of the year, and now faces a Chicago lineup that's 28th in the league in K-rate. Lugo has averaged over nine strikeouts per nine innings over his career and has finally made the leap from being a reliever to a full-time starter.

The number listed at DraftKings is a juiced 4.5 (-165), but it's easy to envision at least a half dozen strikeouts for Lugo. This is a good bounce back spot for the Royals, but the best play in this game is to take this Lugo strikeouts prop.