MLB best bets and Saturday picks, predictions, for Sept. 7

Tony Sartori's Rays vs. Orioles Best Bet: All Eyes on the Total

Saturday, Sept. 7

4:05 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Under 8 (-115 | Play to -120, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

The Baltimore Orioles hand the ball to right-hander Zach Eflin on Saturday and he should serve as a good candidate to back. Eflin is 10-7 through 24 starts this season with a 3.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 3.23 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Entering this game in particularly dominant form, Eflin has surrendered three or fewer runs in six consecutive starts.

He is 5-0 over that stretch with a commanding 2.13 ERA. This success is likely to continue against his former team, considering that the Tampa Bay Rays rank in the bottom six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.

The good news for Tampa is that right-hander Ryan Pepiot takes the mound. He is 7-6 through 21 starts with a 3.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

His analytics are equally strong as Pepiot ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.

Pick: Under 8 (-115 | Play to -120)

D.J. James's Mariners vs Cardinals Best Bet: Cardinals Are No Match

Saturday, Sept. 7

7:15 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Mariners ML (-120 | Play to -150, BetMGM)

By D.J. James

Logan Gilbert and the entire Seattle Mariners’ starting rotation has been red-hot this year. Gilbert maintains a 3.19 ERA and 3.18 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is a tick under 90 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 41st percentile. He has a 4.7% walk rate against a 26.5% strikeout rate, so his pitching arsenal is fantastic.

His opponent on Saturday will be the St. Louis Cardinals and Kyle Gibson. Gibson is fine. He has a 4.39 ERA against a 4.92 xERA, so he should have some negative regression heading his way. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.4 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 38th percentile. He may keep the ball on the ground, but his walk rate is 8.9% with a 21.4% strikeout rate.

The Mariners have a 113 wRC+ off of righties in the last month with a 10.4% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate.

The Cards have a 108 wRC+, 8.5% walk rate, and 20.1% strikeout rate in the last month.

In relief, the Mariners have a 3.98 xFIP, 8.9% walk rate, and 26.6% strikeout rate in the last month.

St. Louis has a 4.24 xFIP, 9.3% walk rate, and 22.2% strikeout rate.

The Mariners hold an edge in every facet of this matchup and should be much bigger favorites. Look for Gilbert and the Seattle relief staff to hold St. Louis in check.

Pick: Mariners ML (-120 | Play to -150)