MLB best bets: Blue Jays vs. Astros odds, picks, prediction for July Fourth

Blue Jays vs. Astros Odds

Thursday, July 4, 1:07 p.m. ET, MLB Network

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Toronto Blue Jays

Bassitt's 3.24 ERA is not indicative of his performance this season. He owns a 1.37 WHIP, a 4.12 xERA and ranks in the 32nd percentile in xBA.

That expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Astros as Bassitt possesses a fade-worthy 4.76 ERA against them over his past start starts against Houston.

Following the right-hander is one the league's worst bullpens. Toronto's relief staff ranks 28th in ERA, last in FIP and 23rd in xFIP.

Houston Astros

That pitching staff is likely to run into issues against Houston's offense. The Astros rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

That success is likely to continue against Bassitt, a pitcher whom this lineup boasts a .306 xBA, a .532 xSLG and a .371 xwOBA against through 114 combined career plate appearances.

However, I'm not fully convinced Valdez will carry his weight on the mound. The southpaw possesses a 3.80 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through 14 starts this season.

His underlying metrics are even worse as he owns a 4.03 xERA and ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Those woes are likely to continue against Toronto, a team Valdez is 0-3 against with a 4.38 ERA over the past four meetings.

Meanwhile, Houston's bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in both FIP and xFIP.

Blue Jays vs. Astros

Betting Pick & Prediction

There are a lot of reasons for us to target the over Thursday. The analytics from both starting pitchers are terrible and both lineups are capable of putting up runs.

At the same time, both bullpens rank in the bottom half of the league in both FIP and xFIP. Finally, there have been nine or more total runs scored in each of the past two games between these teams.

Pick: Over 8.5, Play to -115