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Pictured: Paul Skenes (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)

U pick for Skenes Day

Originally posted on Action Network | By D.J. James | Last updated 5/22/24

Mason Black is set to take the bump for the San Francisco Giants in a Thursday matinee against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Black has struggled in the Major Leagues, but is one of the Giants' top prospects for a reason. In the Minor Leagues this year, aside from strikeouts, he had comparable numbers to his opponent — Paul Skenes.

Now, Skenes already looks like he has ace stuff, and a rotation with Jared Jones and Skenes is poised for future success. In fact, Skenes didn't even allow a hit over six innings against the Cubs in his most recent appearance.

However, even though Black has struggled, he has one of the league's best bullpens behind him. Look for runs to be at a premium in Pittsburgh on Thursday.

San Francisco Giants

Black owns a 7.71 ERA across three Major League starts. He's only striking out about 14% of hitters and has a walk rate over 8%. His Average Exit Velocity is above 89 mph and his Barrel Rate is over 11%. That said, his Hard-Hit Rate has been solid, which could help him down the road. In the minors, Black owned a 29% strikeout rate and an 84.4 mph Average Exit Velocity. The potential is there and he also gets to face a weaker-than-average lineup in this spot.

The Giants have been solid against righties over the past month. They have a 103 wRC+ with a walk rate of 8.3% and a strikeout rate under 21%. However, this lineup is plagued with injuries. Michael Conforto, Tom Murphy, Austin Slater and Jung Hoo Lee are all on the Injured List. That leaves just four hitters with an xwOBA over .330 to go up against Skenes. Good luck.

The Giants’ bullpen owns a 3.32 xFIP and a 26.2% strikeout rate over the past month. San Francisco boasts several arms with an xFIP below 4.00, which should be more than enough to stifle Pittsburgh if Black leaves early.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Skenes is why many who are fans of neither team will tune into this game. The young righty has electric stuff. His average fastball is nearly 100 mph and he already has 18 strikeouts over 10 innings (all against the Cubs). Seeing how injury-riddled San Francisco is gives little hope for the Giants to score often off of Skenes. That said, he might be on a bit of a pitch count.

The Pirates have been awful against righties over the past month. They own a 71 wRC+ and 26.1% strikeout rate. They have five hitters with a xwOBA over .320, but otherwise, the lineup falls off significantly. They have hit lefties a bit better, but are still below average with a 98 wRC+. Essentially, they won't get past the Giants' relievers.

The Pirates have had some trouble pitching late in games. In the past month, they have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so it'll help if Skenes can go at least five innings.

Giants vs. Pirates

Betting Pick & Prediction

Skenes will be able to handle the San Francisco lineup, especially given the amount of injuries the Giants are dealing with. Black may not be having the best season, but even if he find trouble, the Giants have what it takes to keep a weak Pittsburgh lineup in check. Take the under in this game. Play it from 8.5 to 7.5.