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Pictured: Colton Cowser (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

MLB best bets: Mariners vs. Orioles odds, picks, predictions for July 4

Originally posted on Action Network | By Mike Ianniello | Last updated Jul 3, 2024 11:55 PM ET

With the Yankees hitting a skid, Baltimore has taken over the AL East lead. The Orioles have the best record in the American League and a +114 run differential.

Seattle has also played well of later and is atop the AL West as it fights to hold off the surging Astros.

Nothing says America like beers, barbecuing and betting on baseball, so check out my Orioles vs. Mariners pick below.

Mariners vs. Orioles Odds

Thursday, July 4, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Mariners Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-143	7 -110/-110	-1.5 +125

Orioles Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+120	7 -110/-110	+1.5 -150

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for odds, picks, predictions and analysis — and start winning TODAY!

Seattle Mariners

Bryce Miller often flies under the radar in the Mariners’ pitching staff, but he's quietly having a strong season at the back of the rotation. Miller has a 3.88 ERA and has shown the ability to dazzle when his is stuff working.

The issue has been consistency. Miller has a 4.21 xERA and has allowed an 11.6% barrel rate, one of the worst in the league. His fastball and splitter have been strong, but his sinker and sweeper have struggled.

I’m not sure what has been wrong with Seattle's offense, but it hasn't clicked all season. The Mariners had a lot of hope coming into the year, yet rank 27th in scoring, 25th in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+.

Julio Rodriguez's struggles have been a big cause for the issues as he's batting just .244 with a .618 OPS and seven home runs. He has been moved down to seventh in the lineup as Seattle doesn’t have a single player hitting over .260 or with an OPS above .750.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore went out and acquired Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, this offseason, and he now has the second-lowest odds to capture the AL Cy Young Award.

Through 17 starts, Burnes is 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, the third-best mark in baseball. His Baseball Savant page is lit up red like Fourth of July fireworks as he ranks near the top of the league in nearly every metric.

He has an elite chase rate and rarely allows hard contact. He uses an elite cutter to generate ground balls and a curveball-slider combo for the strikeouts.

We all knew that Baltimore’s lineup would be fun, but I’m not sure anybody expected them to be this good, this fast. The Orioles have scored the second-most runs and rank second in both wOBA and wRC+. They have also hit the most home runs in the league.

The O’s are led by MVP-caliber shortstop Gunnar Henderson and All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, but six players on this team have a wRC+ over 120. This lineup is dangerous throughout.

Mariners vs. Orioles

Betting Pick & Prediction

While I do think the price is a little steep, there is too much to like about the Orioles to feel comfortable backing Seattle.

These teams are miles apart offensively right now. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore ranks second with a 145 wRC+, while the Mariners have managed just a 69 wRC+, 28th in the league.

The Orioles hit for average and power, and have seven batters in their lineup with an OPS higher than Seattle’s team leader.

These teams faced off earlier this season and Burnes was brilliant. He mowed down the Mariners and racked up 11 strikeouts over six scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Miller was hit for five runs and managed just one strikeout against Baltimore.