MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Saturday 4/6

Guardians vs. Twins

Saturday, April 6, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Twins Team Total (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

The Minnesota Twins have lacked offensively thus far, but Carlos Carrasco is just not a reliable starting pitcher at this point in his career.

Last year, Carrasco threw 90 innings for this Mets and posted a WHIP of 1.70. He also allowed a tremendous amount of hard contact, which did not help. The year before, he would limit balls in the air, but age is catching up to him and the Twins should have an offensive outburst.

Royce Lewis hitting the injured list was not helpful to this offense, but for the most part, everything else is the same. Byron Buxton is healthy. Manuel Margot was a strong addition. Carlos Santana back in the AL Central helps, too.

The Guardians have a strong back-end of the bullpen with Emmanuel Clase, Scott Barlow and Eli Morgan, but Carrasco could make an early exit and we should see some of Cleveland's less-reliable bullpen arms if that is the case.

The Minnesota Twins held a collective 9.9% walk rate, 27% strikeout rate and 111 wRC+ off of right-handed pitching in 2023. Take Minnesota’s team total over to 5. This could be the look this offense needed.

Pick: Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (+118 at FanDuel) | Bet to 5

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Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Saturday, April 6, 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Bet365)

By Doug Ziefel

Clarke Schmidt started the 2024 season by working around traffic against the Houston Astros, but today he'll have another challenge in front of him with the Toronto Blue Jays on tap.

The Blue Jays have done an excellent job of making opposing pitchers work in the early part of this season. They come in ranked 22nd in team strikeout rate and fourth in team walk rate.

That could mean trouble for a young pitcher like Schmidt, who pounds the zone but doesn't miss bats. While the scoreboard will ultimately tell that story, the one thing it means to us is minimal strikeouts.

Schmidt went under this total in 77 percent of his outings last season. That equates to implied odds of -335 that he'll go under tonight and boast our top Action Labs projection edge as they have him slated for just 3.9 strikeouts.

Pick: Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 at bet365)

White Sox vs. Royals

Saturday, April 6, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 8.5 (FanDuel)

By Brad Cunningham

Chris Flexen should not be in a MLB starting rotation right now.

The guy has proven to be a completely ineffective starting pitcher, as was evidenced last season by his 6.2o expected ERA in more than 100 innings.

The problem with Flexen is he was in the bottom five of baseball in Stuff+ and Pitching+ combined with having terrible command, which allowed hitters to destroy him. His BB/9 rate really isn't that high, but he allows way too high of a barrel rate and hard contact.

Because his stuff is terrible, he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses, so when his stuff is in the zone, opposing teams punish it.

The Royals' offense is highly underrated with the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. in the lineup, but Maikel Garcia has also been a nice bright spot for them. It's very early in the season, but the two of them lead MLB in barrels per plate appearance. Additionally, the Royals' offense over the second half of last season was 13th in wOBA and sixth in batting average.

Michael Wacha is someone who has pretty drastically over-performed his expected metrics for the last two years. He's posted an ERA below 3.4 in both 2022 and 2023, but his expected ERA has been above 4.2 in both seasons. He's not someone who brings high velocity and his pitch arsenal is well below the major-league average, having a Stuff+ rating of 89.

Kansas City and Chicago were also two of the 10 worst bullpens in baseball last season by pretty much every single metric, so I think we are going to have a really high scoring game on our hands.

I have 10.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8.5 runs at -114.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Red Sox vs. Angels

Saturday, April 6, 9:38 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Garrett Whitlock Over 5.5 Strikeouts (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Garrett Whitlock dominated in his first start of the campaign, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out eight in five innings. This success is likely to continue against the Los Angeles Angels, a team he is averaging 6.33 strikeouts against through three career starts.

Furthermore, although Whitlock did not have the strongest campaign in 2023, he ranked among the top-half of all pitchers in Chase%, Whiff% and K%. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled in that department thus far, ranking 23rd in the league in K% this year.

That ranking drops another spot when isolating performance against right-handed pitching.

Pick: Garrett Whitlock Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)