MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Wed. 5/1

Cardinals vs. Tigers

Wednesday, April 1, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Tigers ML -112 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Detroit starting pitcher Kenta Maeda doesn't walk or strike out many hitters. Nonetheless, he has an Average Exit Velocity below 87 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate under 33%. His xERA is much lower than his ERA, so he should have more favorable results in his future.

The Tigers have a wRC+ of 89 with a higher Walk Rate and Strikeout Rate than the Cardinals. Detroit has six bats with a xwOBA over .320 off of righties, which should be enough against Miles Mikolas.

Mikolas has a 5.91 ERA against a 5.72 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is about 89 mph, and he rarely misses bats. He doesn't walk many hitters, but a Hard-hit Rate in the 19th percentile won't get the job done, especially with a Strikeout Rate as low as his.

The Tigers have the slightly better starter, and although the Cardinals usually have a tremendous edge in the bullpen, the Tigers have enough to get by.

Take the Tigers in this game on the moneyline at -112 and bet them to -125.

Pick: Tigers ML -112

Rays vs. Brewers

Wednesday, April 1, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Rays ML -105 (DraftKings)

By John Feltman

Zach Eflin has not gotten off to the start he would have liked, but the metrics suggest he is due for positive regression moving forward. He currently has a 30.8% Called Strikes + Whiffs Rate (CSW%), which suggests he is missing a lot of bats. This projects as a favorable spot for Eflin because the Brewers are hitting .268 against right-handed pitchers this season as their lineup is not healthy. 

His opponent Colin Rea for the Brewers has a 3.25 ERA, but he also has a 4.71 xFIP and only strikes out six batters per nine innings. Normally, pitchers can get away with that low Strikeout Rate if they generate a lot of weak contact and ground balls, but Rea does neither. 

Eflin's metrics suggest he is due for a strong start, and the Tampa Bay offense has a great chance to bounce back in a favorable matchup.

Rea walks nearly half the amount of batters he strikes out, and he also gives up way too many fly balls. This is a slam-dunk pick for me as I expect the Rays to get back on track and tie the series at one game apiece.

Pick: Rays ML -105

Guardians vs. Astros

Wednesday, April 1, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Over 8.5 +100 (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Cleveland hands the ball to right-hander Triston McKenzie on Wednesday evening, and he should be a great fade candidate. Through five starts this season, he possesses a fade-worthy 4.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.

McKenzie's underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 25th percentile or lower in Run Value and xERA.

Meanwhile, Justin Verlander is slated to take the mound for Houston.

While the future Hall of Famer is off to another good start this season, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming as he ranks in the 33rd percentile in xERA and first percentile in Barrel%.

Therefore, both lineups could be in store for a big outing in this matchup, especially because both of them rank in the top half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.

Finally, there have been nine or more total runs scored in four of McKenzie's five starts.

Pick: Over 8.5 +100