MLB best bets: Odds, picks and predictions for Sun. 7/28

Nationals vs. Cardinals

Sunday, July 28, 2:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Cardinals Moneyline (-150, Bet365)

By Nick Parsons

St. Louis is closing in on the final wild-card spot and has a chance to pick up a big win Sunday at home. I expect the Cardinals to do just that.

The Nationals will send DJ Herz (1-4, 4.95 ERA) to the mound out of necessity, while the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas (8-8, 5.02 ERA).

Mikolas is coming off a big performance against the Braves in which he earned a win after allowing two runs over six innings. The 35-year-old right-hander is headed in the right direction and I absolutely believe that — at this price — he's worth backing in this matchup.

Lay the juice and bet the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-150)

Yankees vs. Red Sox

Sunday, July 28, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Red Sox Moneyline (-112, DraftKings)

By William Boor

One of the best rivalries in baseball takes center stage on Sunday night as the Red Sox host the Yankees at Fenway Park.

The Yankees have been the better team over the course of the season, but have struggled of late and haven't given fans or bettors much reason for optimism over the past two weeks. As a result, I think there's value in backing Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox in this matchup.

Offensively, the Red Sox are clicking right now. Boston has scored six or more runs in seven straight games. That's important, not just for the obvious point of "scoring runs is good," but also because New York's offense can erupt at any point, so knowing Boston's bats are hot gives us a bit of insurance.

I also think Boston has the starting pitching edge in this game as New York's Carlos Rodon has struggled away from Yankee Stadium. Rodon has pitched to a 3.61 ERA across eight home starts, but has a 5.00 ERA in 13 road starts this season. Overall, he has a 4.26 xERA and ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, ground-ball rate and barrel percentage. If Rodon lets the Red Sox consistently hit the ball hard and in the air, well, you can do the math on that one.

Houck will start opposite Rodon and yes, he gave up four runs over six innings in his most recent start, but that was at Coors Field. The right-hander gave up just one earned run over 9 1/3 innings in the two starts prior and has a 2.96 ERA across 11 starts at Fenway Park this season.

Houck ranks in the 93rd percentile in ground-ball rate, the 80th percentile in barrel percentage and the 82nd percentile in chase rate. If he can keep the Yankees swinging and force them to hammer the ball into the ground, the Red Sox will be in good shape on Sunday night.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-112)