New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

MLB best bets: Orioles vs. Yankees odds, picks, predictions for Sat. 7/13

Originally posted on Action Network | By Tony Sartori | Last updated Jul 13, 2024 12:01 AM ET

Let's dive into Saturday's MLB odds and get into our Orioles vs. Yankees prediction in our Saturday MLB betting preview for July 13.

Orioles vs. Yankees odds have the Orioles as -142 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-115o / -105u) for the Saturday matchup at Camden Yards. For my Orioles vs. Yankees prediction, I'll be betting the moneyline.

Right-hander Luis Gil takes the mound for New York, while Baltimore hands the ball to right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds

Saturday, July 13, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

Yankees Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
	8.5 -115o / -105u	+120

Orioles Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
	8.5 -115o / -105u	-142

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

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Baltimore Orioles

While Rodriguez is an incredibly talented pitcher, there is just no arguing that he Gil is the superior option in this matchup. Rodriguez trails Gil in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.

Following the right-hander is a bullpen that's nothing too crazy to worry about. Baltimore's relief staff hovers around the league average this season in ERA.

On the other hand, the Orioles' lineup clearly is a cause for concern when fading this team. However, they possess a mere .239 xBA, .331 xSLG and .287 xwOBA through 52 combined career plate appearances against Gil.

New York Yankees

Gil is firmly in the mix for AL Rookie of the Year, and for good reason. The right-hander is 9-5 through 18 starts this season with a commanding 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are equally strong as Gil ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Following Gil is a New York bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA, which is six spots higher than Baltimore's.

This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support as the Yankees rank in the top five of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. That success is likely to continue against Rodriguez, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .252 xBA, .432 xSLG and .333 xwOBA against through 38 combined career plate appearances.

Orioles vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

In my estimation, the only reason that Baltimore is -142 on the moneyline is because of home field. However, the Orioles' sub-.600 home win percentage falls short of New York's approximate .608 home win percentage.

So, if that advantage is nullified, then how can you not like the Yankees at +120 in this spot? First, they boast the pitching advantage.

Gil outranks Rodriguez in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate while New York's bullpen also outranks Baltimore's in ERA. That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash as both teams are tied for first in runs scored per game this season.

Considering these variables, it is worth taking a shot on the road underdog at +120.