MLB News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Pictured: Sonny Gray (left) and Tanner Houck (right). (Photos: Getty Images)

MLB best bets: Our top picks and predictions for Sat. 6/29

Originally posted on Action Network | Last updated Jun 29, 2024 6:24 AM ET

We have another 15-game slate Saturday, and our staff of MLB analysts is offering up two MLB Best Bets, including a run line pick for Reds vs. Cardinals and a moneyline prediction for Padres vs. Red Sox.

Check out our Saturday MLB Best Bets below.

Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for odds, picks, predictions and analysis — and start winning TODAY!

Reds vs. Cardinals

Saturday, June 29, 2:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Cardinals -1.5 (+120 DraftKings)

By Sean Paul

The Reds' offense has regressed from last year, when they seemingly played above their true talent level. Right now, the Reds own a below-average 90 wRC+. However, things seem to be trending upwards.

This month, Jonathan India (181 wRC+), Jeimer Candelario (147 wRC+) and Elly De La Cruz (144 wRC+) have started to find a rhythm. Candelario went deep eight times in June and De La Cruz is always a threat with his speed and power combination.

The Cardinals currently sit 4.5 games ahead of the Reds in the NL Central, and one of the prime reasons for their success is pitching.

Sonny Gray may be getting long in the tooth as they say, but he’s among the best pitchers in baseball. At 34 years old, he's putting together arguably his best season, posting a 2.81 ERA and 2.60 FIP with an outstanding 11.1 K/9.

Gray ranks in the 93rd percentile in K-rate and 82nd percentile in xBA. He’s exceptional and the clear best pitcher in this matchup compared to the Reds’ Carson Spiers.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals are heavy favorites at home with Gray on the mound. They’ll be favorites in most games Gray starts anyways, but only -170 on the moneyline is a bit surprising.

I planned on playing the run line at about -105 before the line dropped, so I’m jubilant about taking plus money.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+120)

Padres vs. Red Sox

Saturday, June 29, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Red Sox Moneyline (-145 | Play to -175, Caesars)

By William Boor

The Padres crushed the Red Sox on Friday night, but I'm backing Tanner Houck to put Boston back in the win column Saturday. Both teams have been playing well — San Diego is 8-2 in its past 10 and Boston is 7-3 — but I feel the Red Sox have numerous advantages, including playing this game at Fenway Park.

Offensively, these teams are similar. The Red Sox are averaging 4.68 runs per game, while the Padres are at 4.60. That difference isn't significant on its own, but Boston's bats will also be facing the lesser pitchers in this matchup.

Michael King, who has pitched to a 3.75 ERA and a 3.81 xERA this season, has given up eight earned runs over his past three starts (15 2/3 innings). The 29-year-old right-hander also ranks in just the 35th percentile in ground-ball rate, meaning Boston should have no trouble putting the ball in the air. As a result, I wouldn't be shocked to see a few balls hit off (or over) the Green Monster, or fly over the short fence in right field.

Boston will counter with Houck, who has pitched to a 2.18 ERA this season. That's likely unsustainable and his 3.38 xERA suggests as much, but 3.38 is still very impressive. Houck has given up three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 16 starts this season and ranks in the 87th percentile in chase rate and 93rd percentile in ground-ball rate. The 28-year-old right-hander also ranks in the 94th percentile in walk rate, meaning he won't issue free passes and will generate a bunch of ground-ball outs.

That's a formula for success.

Not only does Boston have an edge in starting pitching, but it also boasts the better bullpen with a 3.51 ERA compared to San Diego's 4.05.

The Red Sox have a number of edges in this game and should snap their mini two-game losing streak Saturday.